There's about 40 million people over 50 in the work force. Pay them $1 million apiece severance with stipulations.Aside from the question of whether such a plan would work, there's the question of whether there is any truth in the story of how the suggestion came to be. I went to the St. Petersburg Times website. I searched for various components of the suggestion, such as "They leave their jobs. Forty million job openings! Unemployment fixed!" but I found nothing. A google search turns up sites repeating the email message but none have a link back to the alleged origin. There's nothing on the Snopes.com Rumor Has It website one way or the other. Because the suggestion is simply that, and aside from one assertion, mostly opinion rather than fact, it doesn’t matter whether the idea came from a reader of the St. Petersburg Times or some other source. Even the asserted fact, that there are about 40 million people over 50 in the work force, isn't critical to the idea, because the idea would be no more or less sensible if there were 30 million or 50 million people over 50 in the work force.
1) They leave their jobs. Forty million job openings! Unemployment fixed!
2) They buy NEW American cars. Forty million cars ordered! Auto Industry fixed!
3) They either buy a house or pay off their mortgage. Housing Crisis fixed!
The more important question is whether this plan would accomplish what its unidentified proponent claims it will. My answer is no.
First, assuming the proposal would require everyone over the age of 50 to leave the work force, it would have the effect of removing from the nation's pool of labor assets those members of the work force who, though over the age of 50, possess skills, knowledge, wisdom, intuition, prescience, creativity, and other characteristics that aren't necessarily to be found among those who remain in the work force. The proposal suggests that unemployment would be solved, presumably because 40,000,000 jobs would open up. However, there's nothing to indicate that those seeking jobs have the requisite competencies to step into the positions that have been vacated, unless the unstated premise is that qualification for employment should continue to be eroded. In the short term, there would be far more negative consequences for the economy than positive ones. The people forced out of the work force won't be there to pass their collective wisdom and knowledge to the next generation. In the long run, the damage to the economy could be no less severe than the damage that has already occurred.
Second, assuming that the 40 million who receive the payment are required to puchase automobiles, there would be a huge shortage of available automobiles. According to How Big Will the Post-Recession US Vehicle Market Be?, the peak year for US automobile sales involved 17 million transactions. That was nine years ago, and during that time production capacity has been reduced. Restoring production would be more than a bit difficult with most of the people who know how to do so and who once worked at those plants having been pushed out of the work force in step one of the proposal. Whether foreign automobile production could fill the gap is problematic, because the economy isn't helped by having these 40 million individuals ship money abroad for a set of wheels. Many of these 40 million individuals don't need new vehicles, so requiring them to make the proposed purchases is a waste of resources. Worse, as pointed out in How Big Will the Post-Recession US Vehicle Market Be?, the current woes of the automobile industry are the consequences of needing to adjust to a marketplace that no longer can absorb the glut of product pushed into it during the past two decades. The economic problems in the automobile industry are transformative, and at best the proposal would postpone the inevitable at an unreasonable cost. Unless the automobiles being purchased by the 40 million involuntary retirees consume far less energy and don't rely on fossil fuels, the proposal is counter-productive in the long run. Sometimes pain is a good thing because it is sending a message that needs to be heard.
Third, assuming that the 40 million who receive the payment are required to purchase a home or pay off a mortigage, these individuals would be assuming responsibility for the maintenance and care of properties that, in present value terms, might require as much investment as the cost of the home. Some of the 40 million own homes on which there is no mortgage, but it is wasteful to require them to purchase a home that they don't need. One might suggest that they be required to rehabilitate an existing structure so that it can be used as a home, but it is not efficient to ask 40 million people to undertake 40 million projects, and thus funneling the money into their hands for this purpose is highly inefficient. Creating this sort of demand for homes simply contributes to sprawl and excessive housing size, and thus sustains elements of the old economic order that holds back genuine economic growth. Nothing in this step of the proposal does much of anything to deal with the problem of toxic mortgage debt, because most of the people who have lost homes or face foreclosure are under the age of 50. Most of the people over the age of 50 own homes, often free of debt, and are far less in need of a $1 million hand-out to be used for housing purposes.
Fourth, after these folks spend a small portion of the $1 million on a car and a house, what will they do with the rest of the money? Will they stash it offshore? Will they spend it? Will they save it in a US bank? When it goes into the US bank, will it be loaned to someone else or held by the bank because the bank officers are reticient to lend money during a bad economy? If it is to be loaned to someone else, does it not make more sense for the government, rather than transferring the money to 40 million individuals who then transfer the money into banks who then lend it, to lend the money directly to people who want to borrow? If the money is moved abroad or consumed overseas, how does that help the economy?
Fifth, the proposal would not do much of anything to deal with the health care crisis, the energy crisis, the environmental crisis, the education crisis, or the crime wave crisis. Ignoring any one of these problems guarantees that no arrangement, whether it is $1 million distributed to 40 million people or bailout money tossed into the black hole of bank and investment company bailouts, will succeed in solving the other crises.
Sixth, to the extent that people over 50 who would receive the $1 million payout are among the wealthy, the propriety of making the rich richer is deeply questionable. From a practical perspective, these folks could buy cars and houses or pay off debt if they wanted to do so without needing or having another $1 million in their hands. To the extent the government distributes money, it ought to do so with respect to people who truly need assistance. The proposal may be nothing more than a satire on the existing bailout deals, in which case it surely proves this point.
Seventh, $1 million for each of 40,000,000 individuals is $40 trillion. According to Table 3 in this Bureau of Economic Affairs News Release, the nation's gross domestic product is on the order of "only" $14 trillion. The total federal debt, according to the Treasury, is on the order of $11 trillion.
The proposal is nothing more than the tax rebate concept on steroids. And it has about as much chance of accomplishing its intended result as did the rebate, excuse me, economic stimulus program. That is, zero.
More than a year ago, in Who Should Get a Tax Rebate?, I suggested that funneling money to taxpayers made sense only if taxpayers would make better use of the money than would non-taxpayers. Even though that concern was addressed in part when the rebate payments were modified so that non-taxpayers could participate in the program, the outcome reinforced my contention that increasing federal debt in order to put money into people's hands would not help the economy unless the people used the money in ways helpful, rather than hurtful, to the economy. As it turned out, the economic stimulus program did not stimulate the economy, in part for that precise reason. I pointed out the reason, and here it is again:
So long as consumption exceeds production, so long as more wealth, particularly dollars, flow out of the country than flow into the country, so long as certain items remain in short supply and project to remain that way, the nation's economic and financial health will worsen. Tax rebates will not increase the supply of clean water, oil, natural gas, or any of the other resources mismatched to the demands of the world population.The three-step proposal getting all of this attention exacerbates the mismatch between production and consumption, because it would create a group of 40 million people who consume more than they produce, and considering that the world already has far too many people consuming more than they produce, for one reason or another, it makes no sense to add to their numbers when the underlying cause of the global economic meltdown is consumption exceeding resources. As I pointed out in Taxes and Economic Stimulus: Déjà vu All Over Again?":
What seems undeniable is that simply transferring cash to individuals, whether through rebate checks or reduced tax withholding, will have the same insignificant impact on the economy as did the earlier stimulus package. Having the money end up in banks, through savings or loan repayment, simply makes the ocean of bailout money flowing to bank shareholders somewhat, and unnecessarily, deeper. Having the money end up abroad to the extent it is used to boost the consumer goods production in other nations does little to create jobs in the United States, one of the few specific goals mentioned by advocate of a second stimulus package. Transmitting the money to state governments simply removes the question to the next level but doesn't address its ultimate disposition.This analysis, though, needs to be considered not simply against the ideal, but the reality. Putting aside the question of whether the government should transfer dollars to private individuals or organizations, and focusing on the question that arises if the preceding question is assumed to be answered in the affirmative because it already has been so answered, the question is whether the dollars should be transferred to individuals or organizations such as banks, automobile manufacturers, and investment enterprises. On this point, an argument can be made that, compelled to accept the transmission of dollars to the private sector in this manner, there is something to be said to preferring individuals as the recipients. Nonetheless, the proposal begs the key question, because the best use of the money is for direct government investment in public infrastructure and facilities for the public good, a process that generates public assets in exchange for the public debt incurred to acquire them.