Eleven days ago, in
When Tax Revenues are Short-Changed, What Should Be Cut if Taxes Are Not Raised?, I expressed my continued bewilderment at the lack of logical thinking demonstrated by most Americans when it comes to tax and spending policies. Three years and two years ago, respectively, in
Poll on Tax and Spending Illustrates Voter Inconsistency, and
A Grander Delusion: Cut Taxes, Don’t Cut Spending, Cut the Deficit, I had explored the deep flaws in the positions taken by the majority of those polled on these questions.
Now comes
yet another poll that tells us that although most Americans support raising taxes for people with incomes over $250,000, and think that this is insufficient to solve the budget problem, they also oppose cutting spending for Medicaid, cutting military spending, increasing the Medicare eligibility age, or slowing the increase in social security benefits. If those steps are not taken, there is no way to eliminate or reduce the deficit absent tax increases for many more taxpayers than simply those with incomes over $250,000.
When there is a problem, the cause matters, because the cause provides pathways to solutions. Refusal to identify the cause of a problem slows or blocks the development of a remedy. “Just fix it” is much easier to accomplish when the cause is known. Understanding the cause also reduces the chances of the problem resurfacing.
The so-called fiscal cliff, or budget deficit issue, arises because of two decisions. One was the decision to reduce tax revenue, to the point where total revenue is lower than it has been for many decades. The second was the decision to add trillions of dollars to military and homeland defense spending without raising taxes to defray the cost. The first decision came with the same disproven claim that it would create economic growth and in turn increase tax revenues that failed when previously attempted. Instead, millions of Americans lost jobs, the economy plunged into one of the nation’s worst recessions, and economic growth stagnated. The other decision, regardless of one’s views on the necessity of the actions that were undertaken, added trillions to the budget deficit.
I have explained the arithmetic several times, in posts such as
A Memorial Day Essay on War and Taxation,
Peacetime Tax Policy While Waging War = Economic Mess,
Some Insights into the Tax Policy Mess,
What Sort of War is the “Real Budget War”?, and
Borrowing Money to Fund Tax Cuts. I have pointed out that war requires sacrifice, that sacrifice for the sake of war means giving things up to finance military expenditures, that the idea of having both guns and butter has been tried and disproven numerous times, and that the nation would have collapsed had the Bush era approach to fiscal and budget policy been followed during World War Two. Several readers have commented that I am wrong because “this isn’t 1941.” Unless someone can prove otherwise, cutting $100 of revenue from a balanced budget while adding $900 in expenditures generates a deficit, now, in 1941, in 2001, in 2003, and in any other year. Every attempt to prove that it is possible to cut revenue, add expenditures, but not create a deficit relies on what a Republican president aptly called “voodoo economics.”
The first cause of the problem can be fixed by taking two steps. Although the first seems to be facing less political opposition, the second would generate howls of protest. The first step is to repeal the Bush tax cuts. For everyone. The second is to collect the revenue that would have been collected had the Bush tax cuts not been enacted. Of course, that isn’t going to happen. Translation: the problem isn’t going to be solved unless the second cause of the problem generates a solution.
The second cause of the problem can be fixed in one or both of two ways. The first way is to cut back military spending to adjust for the deficit spending of the past decade. That, according to the poll, is unpalatable to the majority of Americans. The second way is to find revenue to pay back the debt incurred to finance expenditures that were undertaken without a supporting revenue base. But that brings us back to the first cause of the problem and the inadequacy of the solutions reflecting that cause.
This is why the folks who created the problem try to divert attention to solutions that do not reflect the cause of the problem. Cutting social security, whether by slowing increases, changing eligibility ages, or otherwise, is a scapegoat approach. It is a diversionary tactic designed to take Americans’ eyes off of the actual causes of the problem. Social security did not cause the problem, and in fact it financed part of the Bush era deficit. Social security will pose budgetary issues in the future, and things need to be done to cut those problems off at the pass, and may include slowing increases and raising eligibility ages, but that ought not be something used to pay for foolish tax cuts and deficit military spending of the past decade. The same can be said of Medicare, which faces future problems very soon. Other programs, such as food stamps, educational assistance, veterans’ benefits, and similar social net expenditures, not only are not the cause of the problem, but are symptoms and by-products of the underlying causes. For example, the increased spending for veterans’ benefits is an additional cost of the two wars. The increased spending for food stamps is a direct consequence of the economic collapse spawned by foolish decisions in the early part of the last decade, including not only unwise tax cuts and deficit military spending but unfettered bad behavior by too many unregulated actors in the so-called free market. In any event, cutting every federal expenditure aside from military spending, interest on the debt, social security, Medicare, and Medicaid will not balance the budget or even come close.
The solution to the budget deficit will be painful. It is the pain that should have been felt by all Americans, and not just members of the military and their families and friends, while the nation engaged in war. It is postponed pain, and it is inevitable. If the budget deficit is not solved, and the nation goes over the fiscal cliff, there will be pain. There is no escaping the economic pain. To quote another Republican president, “I don’t like it but there it is.”