First, the article. According to this article, one of the ways China is trying to encourage people to have more children is to impose its 13 percent value-added tax (VAT) on condoms and other contraceptives. For those unfamiliar with a VAT, it is similar to a sales tax, computed not on the total sales price but on the portion of the sales price that represents the value added by the seller (whose seller paid a VAT on what that seller added, and whose customer, if selling the item, would be pay a VAT on what the customer-turned-seller added in value). The article notes that China has raised the “limit on the number of children permitted per couple to three.” It also offers a variety of subsidies, leave days, and other incentives such as tax breaks for childcare.
Second, the question posed by reader Morris, and his answer. He asks, “Will China's new tax increase raise birth rates?” He suggests, “No. If you cannot afford a condom tax then you sure cannot afford the cost of a new child.” The article suggests that the tax is “largely a symbolic move,” pointing out that the equivalent US dollar cost of condom packets and contraceptive pills run in the average of $6 to $17. The 13 percent VAT would run from the US equivalent of 78 cents to $2.21. So though it’s true that someone who cannot afford to pay another 78 cents to $2.21 is almost certainly lacking the finances to support a child. To the extent that two people pass up purchasing a contraceptive because of that slight increased cost, there is a chance, perhaps small, perhaps greater, that those two people will become the parents of a child they cannot afford to raise.
A demographer in China opined, “However, this measure is unlikely to have a significant effect on increasing the fertility rate.” Concomitantly, the VAT in question is highly unlikely to raise much revenue, and thus unlikely to make a dent in the revenue shortages that are making it difficult for childcare subsidies to be paid. Some are suggesting that the “primary motivation” behind the tax is not revenue generation.
The question of whether, and if so, how, tax rates, exemptions, and credits should be used to encourage or discourage births has been around for a long time, has been debated during that long time, and has been the subject of arguments supporting and opposing the use of tax systems to affect decisions made by individuals who are considering having or not having children.
This larger question is not one I am ready to discuss. I am not a demographer. I am not a sociologist. I do wonder, though, if China was higher birth rates, why limit people to three children? Why not permit someone who can afford to have six children do so? Surely there are underlying reasons but I leave that discussion to others who are more qualified to explain and critique birth limits.