Andy Cassel's Philadelphia Inquirer
column on consumption tax possibilities addressed some of the same issues that everyone else interested in the fate of tax reform has been pondering. Andy's comments have inspired me to elaborate on
my most recent analysis of the consumption tax.
Would the consumption tax be simpler than the income tax? How could it not be? How could anything be more complicated? At least any sort of tax system. Well, the income tax COULD be more complicated. After all, ten years ago, twenty years ago, people characterized the income tax as absurdly complex, and hindsight tells us that what existed then, in the "good old days," wasn't anywhere as complicated as what now exists. The trend is for the Internal Revenue Code to set up a different tax system for each citizen.
So, yes, the consumption tax could be at least as complicated as the income tax. Why? Andy describes the complexity of the income tax as "the need to distinguish "taxable" income from other kinds of cash flow." That's true, though most of the complexity involves deductions, credits, and special rates. There's very little room to twist around gross income, short of fraud or near-fraud tax shelters.
With a consumption tax, the question is a focus on "spending," to use Andy's term. But what spending gets taxed? A consumption tax that resembles a state sales tax is going to have a bad role model. To appreciate how simple the federal income tax is, take a peek at state sales taxes. The lists of taxable and non-taxable items not only are long, but difficult to comprehend in terms of policy. And many don't simply classify something as taxable or not, but make the distinction turn on where the item is used (eat-in versus take-out, for example) or who uses it, or who buys it, etc. etc. The reason consumers are shielded from the complexity is that the vendor is responsible for figuring out if the tax applies, and in recent years digital technology has made that much easier. The problem is that when a mistake is made, the consumer doesn't realize it unless the mistake is huge. Years ago, several bold people suggested that the IRS be allowed to tap into citizens' bank accounts so that the IRS could compute the income tax and pull it out of the citizen's account. Painless, like the sales tax. Errors unnoticed, like the sales tax. The problem was that about the same time the IRS was erroneously depositing refunds into citizen's bank accounts that were orders of magnitude out-of-whack. So the idea went nowhere. Fortunately. Today, businesses and the government are far more likely to make mistakes than they were twenty years ago. The reasons can be the topic of a future post.
So what WOULD get taxed under a consumption tax? Buying a house? But that's not consumption. Houses are used but not consumed. Perhaps the tax should be on the person who demolishes property. What about purchase of a refrigerator? Is it "consumed" as is food? Yet food is the most common exception to state sales taxes. If, as consumption tax advocates argue, the consumption tax is more efficient because it forces savings, ought it not be designed to encourage efficiency? No taxes on recycling, and high taxes on use of resources that cannot be replaced, would fit the bill. Will it happen? No.
I pointed out the problem with the argument that comsumption taxes are good because they encourage savings, which in turn is good because it causes economies to grow. Savings simply shift consumption to a debtor, because ultimately the saved amounts are loaned to other consumers. Those with, become creditors. Everyone else, a debtor. What makes an economy grow is development of resources, either through recycling or discovery (of either natural sources, an ever-diminishing prospect, or through invention). Let's see if a consumption tax does this.
A manufacture takes resources and builds an automobile. The manufacturer is not hit with a consumption tax, because it is imposed on the purchaser (even if the manufacturer is stuck with collecting it, in the style of a state sales tax). The tax doesn't take into account the proportion of materials in the automobile that can be recycled or that cannot be recycled. The purchaser eventually sells the automobile to someone else. What happens? Another consumption tax, just as there is another sales tax. The difference is that the sales tax is what it says it is, a tax on sales, and if the automobile is sold from purchaser to buyer to third buyer, and so on, the state collects far more than just, say, 6% of the original manufacturer's sales price. So, who has "consumed" the automobile? The first purchaser? No, because the first purchaser has sold the automobile for something more than zero, indicating that the first purchaser did not consume the entire automobile. Ought not the first purchaser get a consumption tax REFUND when selling to the second purchaser? Or, to put it another way, ought not the second purchaser reimburse the first purchaser for the consumption that is being shifted from the first purchaser to the second purchaser? That sale, from first to second purchaser, does not consume additional resources. Does it cause the economy to grow? Yes, if measured by volume of goods changing hands. Yet this sale is a transaction that "grows" the economy without consuming anything. Why tax it? After all, if the economy could be "grown" without anything being consumed, taxes would be unnecessary.
So, something more must be involved. Let's think again about what gets taxed, even before all the special interest lobbyists show up and turn the consumption tax into an inspiration for a "bring back the less complicated income tax" movement. Is the "purchase" of corporate stock taxed? No. The purchase of a building? Hmmm. But isn't the purchase of real estate an investment just as is stock? Goodness, even purchase of a high quality refrigerator is an "investment."
What if the building is a home? Imagine a 25% consumption tax on home sales. Very good for the economy? OK, exception needed. But wait. Purchase of an existing home is merely a transfer of resources, not a consumption. Purchase of a new home consumes resources (at least in the sense that they are transformed from tree and bauxite deposit into a residence). But if only new home purchases are taxed, that puts builders out of business. Or at least moves them into the remodeling business. Maybe that's not a bad idea, considering how many vacant buildings populate both the urban and rural landscape.
Of course, we know that real estate will be exempted. After all, the Congress (not the IRS, Andy) has been persuaded by every "don't let taxes get in the way of our real estate deals or the country will go bankrupt overnight" song chanted by the real estate lobby. Good thing, too, else we'd have a huge shortage of vacant office buildings and empty shopping malls, and we know it's not good for the economy for resources to be diverted from building commercial properties that will sit unleased for years. Thus, real estate financed with third-party nonrecourse debt is treated as at-risk for the investors even though they are not at risk. Investors who own real property that increases in value are permitted to deduct depreciation that doesn't exist as though they were no different from business owners who purchase equipment that diminishes in value in very visible ways. Real estate investors are the beneficiaries of special exceptions to the passive loss limitations. So I doubt real estate is going to end up being taxed under a consumption tax.
What about K-12 and college tuition? Is that "spending"? Of course. Taxable? Just imagine, an overnight 25% increase in the cost of education. Good for the economy? Who gets hit? The person making $500,000 a year sending two children to school? Or the person earning $50,000 a year trying to send two children to school? OK, let's make tuition exempt.
So what gets taxed? Mostly the money that is spent on shoes, clothing, food, medicine, automobiles, and, OH WAIT. We can't tax shoes, clothing, food, and medicine. After all, they're exempt under most sales taxes. Unless, in many states, it's prepared food being taken out of the establishment to be consumed. Hmmm. Food is consumed no matter where it is eaten. What's the difference? So, anyhow, do those necessities get taxed? Maybe not.
What's left. Oh, let's see. DVD players? Ah, to some people those are necessities. No matter, they'll find some common value set that tells us that DVD players are not as important as food or medicine. And they're right. So what gets taxed is the stuff that isn't necessary. What does that do to an economy that for more than fifty years has thrived on the "disposable income spending" pattern? I'm not sure. It could be good. It could be bad.
So what will happen is that people who must spend most or all of their income on necessities will pay taxes on most or all of their income. Those with incomes that permit saving will pay about the same amount of tax (after all, one can double the cost of food by choosing more expensive items but there is a limit to how much one can eat) as do those with far less income. If, as some suggest, provisions will be put in place to rebate the tax to the poor, who's left paying the tax? A tax that is, essentially, a tax on wages? Why, the middle class.
What will happen? Eventually the middle class will disappear. It already is beginning to disappear, and the consumption tax will hasten its demise. How awful, one might think. Well, someone IN the middle class will think that way, unless they're fairly confident they can break into the upper class (the wealthy, super wealthy, hyper wealthy, etc.). No wonder parents go nuts at sports games. Their child making the pros is perhaps their only ticket out.
Would the poor be upset? In theory, yes. It means that there would be far less chance of "moving up" the economic ladder (because the middle rungs will have been removed). So, as is the case today, much emphasis will be placed on getting one's self, or one's children, into the limelight that brings big bucks. No wonder so many untalented people flock to the TV reality shows, and all the other "lotteries in disguise." This is not news. The fact that lotteries draw most of their revenue out of the poor neighborhoods has been known for quite a while.
And that leaves the upper echelon. Historically, the upper echelon has always feared the middle class. Whether it was royalty bucking the nobles, the upper crust fending off the merchant class, the Soviet power brokers putting the middle class on the farms, the Maoists in China and the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia putting the intellectuals into the fields, or the Roman Senate keeping close tabs on citizenship rights, the money-fueled, power-lusting megalomaniacs have always been far more of a threat to the middle than to the peasants, despite the common portrayal of Robin Hood feuding with King John. The middle class thrives when the upper echelon needs a buffer during times of social unrest. Robin Hood didn't steal from King John as much as he did from the petty nobility.
So, the more I think about it, the more palatable I find a user-fee based revenue system that rewards production and discovery, and burdens irrecoverable resource consumption. The more I learn what sort of thing a so-called "consumption tax" would be that imposes multiple taxes on the same automobile sold 5 times over a 15-year period even though its manufacture used no more resources than the one held by the one owner during the same period, one that imposes a tax on the purchase of residences but not corporate stock, and one that is loaded with exceptions resembling those permeating state sales taxes, the less I like it. I might even like it as much as I do the income tax. Which is to say, not very much. No, not at all. At least not what presently exists.
Speaking of which, Andy mentioned that he started in on his tax return preparation this weekend. What a coincidence. So did I. I hope he's done. I'm not. As I was slogging through, I realized I had not yet done the tax return for TaxJEM, and it is due in a week. Fortunately, its return doesn't look like Microsoft's, so I should be able to get it done within a few hours. HOURS? Yes, the Pennsylvania return, which includes an antiquated capital stock franchise tax, makes the federal 1120S look like child's play.
I wonder if a consumption tax would apply to the oxygen I will consume as I do the return. Perhaps I get a credit for planting and caring for trees and shrubs that replace the oxygen. Or perhaps I could impose a consumption tax on the legislators who require me to consume time (an irreplaceable resource) filling out the forms that their revenue laws require.
And, for those thinking that states would say bye-bye to their income taxes and jump on a consumption tax bandwagon being pulled by the federal tax locomotive, brace yourselves. At best, states will ADD the consumption tax to their already interminably long list of revenue devices.
And with that, I've consumed my allocated time and space for today's posting.