In the story, To-Do List: Wrap Gifts. Have Baby, David Leonhardt provides an interesting array of observations:
1. Modern medical technology has made it easier for women to select a day for their child's birth.From these observations, Leonhardt concludes that the tax law is encouraging people to have children in December. He acknowledges that this conclusion isn't easy to accept. He quotes one economist who describes the spike in December births as "astounding." Because there are other reasons people might prefer having their children in December, several economists ran some tests and determined that there was a correlation between tax breaks and birth timing. Leonhardt concludes that of the 70,000 children who would otherwise be born during the first week of January, 5,000 have their births "accelerated" into December "partly for tax reasons." One of the economists thinks Leonhardt's estimate is "conservative."
2. For four of the seven years from 1997 through 2003, December has pushed September aside as the month with the highest number of births; data for years since 2003 has not been released.
3. Since the early 1990s, the tax code has provided an increasing number of tax benefits based on the existence of, and number, of a taxpayer's children.
4. The tax value of a child being born before the end of the year, in contrast to after the beginning of the next year, is in the thousands of dollars.
5. Among the tax breaks are the dependency exemption deduction, the child tax credit, the earned income tax credit, and the medical expense deduction.
Two salient concerns jump out at me. The first is whether people ought to plan their child's birth dates with deference to the tax laws. The second is whether people ought to take steps to "accelerate" a child's birth in order to obtain tax benefits.
Perhaps I am naive, or perhaps I am a cynic. I don't think people ought to do things that they otherwise would not do because there is a tax advantage for doing so. The tax law ought to be a factor only when it influences the taxpayer to select one of two or more choices any of which would be acceptable to the taxpayer. Thus, the tax law encourages taxpayers to select a particular form of business entity but it ought not cause a person to operate a business in the first place that the taxpayer would not otherwise choose to own. I've always wondered, and half-jokingly ask my tax students, if people sit around and decide to adopt a child because the Congress enacted or increased the adoption credit. Now I'm beginning to worry that perhaps people do think in those terms. Can you imagine a child being told that he or she was adopted because the tax laws induced the parents to do so? Perhaps I am wrong in thinking that the days of having as many children as possible because there were many acres of farmland to till are behind us. Leonhardt thinks that "[u]nless you’re a cynic, or an economist," it might be too much to think that the tax law has intruded on something so personal as the decision to have a child. I share his astonishment.
But even if one accepts the idea that people who might otherwise not have children decide to do so because of the tax law, or choose to have more children than they otherwise would have because of tax advantages, it is even more difficult to accept the notion that medical technology ought to be used to bring a child into the world before nature says it is time to do so. Aside from medical necessity that demands earlier birthing, doing Caesareans or pumping up the pitocin in order to make certain the child arrives before the ball falls on Times Square is dangerous. Leonhardt points out studies that show infant mortality increases when Caesareans are performed. I'm going to guess there is more risk to the mother as well. Compounding this approach is the increased cost of accelerating a birth. Leonhardt asks if the "health care system should be subsidizing parents' desire for a smaller tax bill." Good question. Easy answer. No. According to Leonhardt, some health care systems are now discouraging voluntary birth acceleration.
Leonhardt suggests a solution, and his suggestion makes sense. The tax advantages pegged to a child should be prorated, so that having a child in December would qualify a taxpayer for a small fraction of what's at stake. The significance of "out before the ball drops" would disappear. Of course, the proration also should apply to other instances where the tax law currently puts a premium on making a personal decision by midnight of December 31. Thus, for example, two individuals who marry on December 31 would be entitled to use joint return rates for 1/365 of their income rather than for all of it.
I doubt Congress will take the suggestion seriously. It's too easy to win votes by proclaiming one's self as pro-family and by proving one's status as pro-family by voting for enactment and retention of tax breaks that reward the acceleration of marriage and births. Never mind that the tax breaks are doing damage to children and mothers.
I don't understand why people who are planning to have children don't simply just have them. So what if the child arrives in September or October? What's the point in delaying the child's arrival until December and then resorting to Caesareans or pitocin to avoid a January birth? The cost of raising the child isn't reduced, and probably increases because inflation will make the cost of raising a child born in December of 2006 slightly higher than the cost of raising a child born in September of 2006. Could people be factoring time value of money into the computation and determining that the highest internal rate of return on having a child occurs when the child is born on December 31? Yikes, I cannot imagine how people whose decisions are based on that sort of reasoning determine how much to spend on an engagement ring or when to present it. "Excuse me, dear, but please stop complaining that you didn't get a ring on Valentine's Day. My financial adviser tells me it's best to pop the question next Thursday." OK.
Yesterday, I closed a commentary posted to a tax professor listserve with this observation: "The sad aspect of the story is that people should have children for every reason other than tax savings. What's next? Investing in a partnership that purchases children instead of oil and gas or real estate investments?" A tax colleague on the West Coast replied, "In many cases, leasing provides greater flexibility and superior discounted cash flow." He got me.