Consider this proposition from the analysis. The broker writes:
First, you need to understand that residential real estate values are based upon what it will cost an average consumer per month to own a home. This number is called P.I.T.I, which represents – principle [sic], interest, taxes and insurance. Most real estate consumers are limited by the PITI limits set by the mortgage lenders. You cannot exceed your maximum PITI amount when buying a home. The PI (principle [sic] and interest) part of this number fluctuates with home mortgageHas this broker never met someone who paid cash for a home? Has this broker never met someone who rolled over equity from a previous home? Has this broker never met someone who made a down payment on the home using cash from investments, gifts, inheritances, or other sources? The value of real estate reflects location, condition of the property, amenities, number of rooms, and the property’s energy efficiency, to mention just a some of the factors. The idea that “real estate values are based upon what it will cost an average consumer per month to own a home” is nonsense, for taken to its logical limit, all properties would be worth the same amount, reflecting a computation of an average consumer’s financial position.
interest rates. The T – (taxes) fluctuates with the tax increases by the taxing authorities. The I – (insurance) is the most stable part of the PITI and is controlled by insurance rates. The combination of these three factors determines what a buyer can pay a seller for a home.
The broker continues:
The big “T” in the middle of PITI represents our taxes. When this number goes up, the amount that we can spend of PI (principle [sic] and interest) automatically goes down. Since a buyer is limited by the PITI, a tax increase will decrease the amount of money that a buyer can pay to a home seller. When buyers can pay less, sellers will get less. A tax increase will decrease the value of real estate by decreasing what a buyer can pay for that real estate because of the PITI set by mortgage companies.The first problem with this analysis is that it conflates examining a buyer’s position when acquiring a residence and examining the impact of real estate tax increases on existing owners. It is true that, all other things being equal, a prospective buyer considering two identical houses located in two different taxing jurisdictions, could conclude that the higher taxes in one jurisdiction makes the house located there more expensive than the other house, and perhaps, depending on the numbers, beyond the buyer’s purchasing capacity. The second problem with this analysis is the assertion that a tax increase reduces the amount available for principal and interest. That is not true for owners whose incomes have increased since the purchase.
The broker gives an example of how real estate tax increases allegedly reduce the value of properties:
The school district adds an additional $1,000,000 to the budget. This number is quickly divided by the average value of a home in the school district. Then that number is divided by twelve to get the cost per household per month. Before you know it, parents and teachers are asking if you really want to do away with sports program, music, after school programs for a measly $24 per household per month. The spontaneous answer is “no”. . . . Remember the measly $24 per month, per household tax hike we looked at in the beginning? If you take this little number and divide it by another little number, it leads to a much bigger number. In this case, we divide the $24 per month, by the $6 per month that was discussed above and that equals 4. That four represents $4,000 of purchasing power lost by a buyer and $4,000 of lost potential income for a seller. The question is now whether a buyer or seller is willing to throw $4,000 of home value into the pot to pay for the school programs. It looks a little different at this scale.The flaw in this analysis is that it fails to take into account the property value increases that benefit a school district that, in contrast to others, institutes or retains an educational or extracurricular program. It also fails to take into account the economic value of education. When the broker’s hypothetical owner, who has supposedly maintained home value by successfully resisting real estate tax increases, decides to sell, that owner faces a greater risk that the pool of available buyers has vaporized because their increasingly watered-down education left them with little or no skills to offer the job market. It’s a classic example of the tendency in the current national debates about almost every issue to focus on the short-term and ignore the long-term. So when the broker announces, “That’s right; a $10 million dollar tax increase will decrease the value of real estate in the school district by $138 million dollars using basic real estate taxation mathematics,” he is leaving out the externalities, the positive impact of quality school districts on real estate values, and the long-term impact of improved education.
The broker then concludes that “The only other viable solution is the elimination of real estate property taxes.” Of course, he makes no suggestion as to what funding source would replace the real property tax. Perhaps he would do away with them entirely, leaving people without schools, local police, road maintenance, county courts, and all the other things funded by real property taxes. It is mind boggling to think that real estate values would soar in a township that eliminates all public services. If pressed, perhaps the broker would argue for some other sort of tax, and my guess is that it would be a tax that disproportionately afflicts those not in the real estate business. These considerations surely were a factor in Tuesday's decision by North Dakota voters to reject, by 76 to 24 percent,a proposal to abolish the real property tax.