The deficit cannot be eliminated merely by cutting spending, unless Congress wants to strip the military down to pretty much nothing, eliminate Social Security and Medicare, and put an end to a variety of other programs. The nation faces huge deficits not only because tax rates on the wealthy are lower than they need to be, but also because the deficit reflects eight years of taxes that should have been collected but that were forgiven by a Congress anxious to reward the economic elite and ballooning interest payments on the debt undertaken to finance the deficits generated by trying to finance a war while cutting taxes.In FICA, Medicare, and Payroll Taxes, I noted that “Advocates of tax cutting need to identify the cuts they would make to balance the budget, and if they don’t touch defense, Medicare, Social Security – and they’re stuck with the interest payment on the debt – there’s not enough to cut.”
So today I invite the advocates of using spending cuts as the sole solution to the budget deficit crisis to identify sufficient cuts to bring the budget into balance. Off the table is the “trickle down” nonsense that claims tax cuts increase revenue, because when that was tried it didn’t happen. Though there was a momentary upward blip in tax revenues, the long-term experience demonstrates that short-term success is simply that, transitory illusion.
A month and a half ago, the Kaiser Family Foundation released poll results revealing that 40 percent of Americans “think that foreign aid is one of the two biggest areas of spending in the federal budget.” This, of course, is totally incorrect. Once again, the question pops up, “Why are Americans so wrong about something so easy to learn?” The Wall Street Journal, in this article, reported on the poll results and asked the Washington think tank Third Way to prepare “A Taxpayer’s Itemized Receipt” that shows where federal tax revenues go. The “Receipt,” which accompanies theWall Street Journal article, shows what happens to the $42,978 of total income and payroll taxes paid by a working couple with income of $200,000, and what happens to the $7,555 of total income and payroll taxes paid by a retired couple with income of $100,000. What I have done is to convert the figures to show how much of every $1,000 of total income and payroll taxes is expended on some of the categories.
Of the $1,000, $192.64 is paid out in Social Security benefits. Military operations account for $179.29, of which $41.42 is attributable to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another $120.76 is used for Medicare, and $71.32 goes for Medicaid. Interest on the national debt takes $53.16, and veterans’ benefits and health care consume $25.24. Food stamps cost $15.38, the CIA gets $14.15, and federal highways, $11.83. The amounts spent on NIH, Department of Energy, housing subsidies, and each of the other categories is even less. Foreign aid takes $8.53, an amount which puts it far down the list, certainly not one of the top two categories.
Seen another way, the proposed 2011 federal budget, according to this summary, would consist of receipts totaling $2.567 trillion, expenditures amounting to $3.834 trillion, and a deficit of $1.267 trillion. To balance the budget without raising taxes, $1.267 trillion of the $3.834 expenditures would need to be cut. That’s 33 percent of the expenditures. Social security, Medicare, Medicaid, military operations, and interest on the national debt alone constitute 62 percent of the expenditures. Unless those are cut, then 89 percent of all other expenditures, including veterans’ benefits and health care, the CIA and other intelligence activities, NIH, military retirement, border security, immigration, the FBI, the courts, FEMA, the Coast Guard, federal prisons, and a long list of services that the country surely needs, would need to be axed.
Some might propose cutting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, but that proposal would bring howls of opposition from across the spectrum, with people of all ages and political stripes objecting. There are those who would cut military operations, but again, objections would pour in from those concerned about the consequences. Who would rejoice at cutting almost 90 percent of national intelligence activities, border security, federal highways, and the Coast Guard? How about NASA? Having already had its budget cut, it has cancelled the program to replace the shuttle, which means China, or perhaps Japan or Russia, will put people on the moon, plant their flag, and leave the United States gasping in the wake of these other nations’ successes. Cutting interest on the national debt would destroy the country’s credit, and accelerate the deep spiral into which it already is heading. Note that to reduce interest on the federal debt, the debt must be cut, which means chopping even more expenditures in order to generate a budget surplus that can be used to pay down the debt.
Those who claim that there is waste that can be eliminated want us to believe that one-third of federal expenditures constitute waste. That simply isn’t so, and no study of the question has ever projected a ratio anywhere near that level. There are those who would cut all the social programs other than Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans’ benefits, but that won’t generate a 33 percent reduction in spending. With state and local governments unable to take up the burden, that sort of cutting would create a desperate conglomeration of destitute individuals driven to do more than demonstrate. Do the people who advocate this sort of cutting ever stop to picture or imagine what society would become under those circumstances?
Those who want to tinker with various spending cuts -- as well as revenue adjustments -- will find this interactive federal budget puzzle to be interesting, and in some strange way, almost fun.
I find it interesting to consider what would have happened had taxes not been cut, let alone raised, when the nation went to war nine years ago. Imagine the trillions of dollars that would have been collected during that period. Imagine the impact on credit markets. Imagine an economy not bloated with tax cut money and thus not sucked into bubbles that eventually burst. It’s too late to go back and do the right thing that should have been done. It’s politically impossible to collect “back taxes” with interest to compensate for the error in judgment. And until Americans understand the reality, it’s politically impossible to put an end to one of the principal causes of the economic mess in which the country is mired. With 40 percent of the nation’s citizens thinking foreign aid is one of the top two federal expenditures, we have a very long way to go before Americans are cleansed of the lies and misleading sound bites of the extremists and ready to tackle the problem. By then, it will be too late. Unless taxes are raised – and that’s not saying there should be no cutting of expenditures – but, I repeat, unless taxes are raised, America will be a second-order, or perhaps even third-order, nation by the end of this century.