This morning, as I was driving home from the gym, burning all of four cups of gasoline, the air personality on a New Jersey station was commenting that even though American gasoline prices were nowhere near those in places such as Europe and Hong Kong, there was something about the sticker shock that he didn't quite grasp. He did a fine analysis of how gasoline prices have risen proportionately to income over the past 30 years. He challenged people to compare their gasoline prices to their incomes, and to ascertain if the percentage has changed significantly.
His take on the question makes sense, but it misses several key points. First, for someone who began purchasing gasoline in the late 80s or early 90s, gasoline prices have risen more quickly than has income. For these people, the relative price of gasoline 30 years ago is history rather than experience. The same can be said for someone who started paying for gasoline a year or two ago. It all depends on the precise point in the price-history curve that the person arrives. Second, for some people, income has not risen as quickly as has gasoline prices. After all, average income increases are inflated by the huge pay inflation at the top of the pay scale. Third, comparing per-gallon gasoline price to income misses one of the chief ingredients of the energy crisis, namely, that most people are driving more miles each year.
I addressed the gasoline question in detail more than a year ago, in May of 2004, when gasoline price increases were being closely covered by the press. That discussion followed an earlier post in which I argued that gasoline taxes needed to be increased to keep pace with inflation and the rising costs of road maintenance, and it was quickly followed by a Memorial Day 2004 post rejecting the notion of toll-free highways for vehicles with higher fuel efficiency. Late last year, in an election-oriented post, I pointed out that politicians don't help Americans analyze the problem because they present inconsistent and inaccurate soundbites with respect to the issue, choosing to say what people want to hear rather than the truth that needs to be told.
Considering how much bad information, emotionally-driven exaggerations, politically-motivated alarms, and frustrated expressions of self-centeredness have infiltrated the newspapers, radio talk shows, and cable networks, it's worth once again looking more closely at the facts. Failure to do so is what lets lawn contractors get away with increasing overall prices by 20% when gasoline prices, constituting 15% of their costs, increase by 25%. Do the math.
Has the passing of 15 months discredited any of my comments from May of 2004? Here are those comments, and today's reflection on them.
I began with the same point I just made:
It's amazing how an increase in gasoline prices can generate so much consternation. Politicians grab onto the issue as though it's the be-all and end-all of life. Accusations fly, bizarre solutions are suggested, and very few take the time to sit down and THINK their way through the situation.In this respect, nothing has changed. No surprise there. I then proceeded to assert that "There are five major considerations: supply and demand, inflation-adjusted cost, industry patterns and government regulation, taxes, and strategic reserve." and I continue to think that these remain the focus of any analysis.
Turning to the first one, I stated:
Supply and demand is easy. If demand goes up, or supply goes down, or both, prices go up. That's Economics 101, which ought to be taught in high school, and perhaps it is, here and there. Demand is going up at a phenomenal rate, on a global basis, particularly because China is growing and its need for energy is skyrocketing. Total miles driven by Americans has increased at rates far beyond the rate of increase in the population. Supply has been decreased, but will be tweaked up a bit in the near future, for a complex array of economic and political reasons. Although OPEC controls only a small fraction of total world-wide oil, the oil market is a marginal one, which gives OPEC supply decisions a noticeable impact. Although OPEC is perceived as making its supply decisions solely for political purposes, in fact it is influenced by economic conditions in its member nations and by their desire to manage a finite national natural resource in careful ways.This continues to be the case. The law of supply and demand has not been repealed or amended. All that I will add is that gasoline, heating oil, and other energy products are simply in the vanguard of a long line of commodities that will become relatively scarcer as populations skyrocket, developing nations develop, and environmental and other pressures curtail production; I'm thinking principally of fresh, clean drinking water.
On the second consideration, I noted:
Inflation-adjusted cost is easy. Take a look at gasoline prices in 2004 dollars over the past 85 years and it's obvious that gasoline has been selling for less than its real price for many years. During the 1990s gasoline prices reached record lows in real dollar terms. Consider this gem from a letter to the editor of the Augusta Chronicle in 2001: In 1960 gasoline sold for 30-33 cents a gallon and a full size Ford sold for $2,000-$3,000, and in 2001 the Ford sold for ten times as much. Why Americans think they are entitled to "cheap" gasoline bewilders me. I've spent time in Europe, and despite the "non shock" of seeing "1.30" as the price, once that price in Euros is adjusted for the fact it is a per litre price, it's pretty obvious that the per gallon cost of gasoline in Europe is far more than what's being paid in the U.S. today. Part of the reason is taxes. More on that in a moment.As with supply and demand, nothing much has changed here. As I pointed out, these sorts of comparisons don't resonate emotionally with people who entered the gasoline market as purchasers at times when the price curve was below the overall average, but the same can be said with respect to any commodity that experiences a significant price fluctuation.
The circumstances with respect to the the third consideration also appear to have held constant. I stated:
Industry patterns and government regulation is more complex. Gasoline prices go up in the summer, because demand increases. But industry isn't always ready to crank up the production, because if there has been a cold and/or longer winter it has to replenish heating oil stocks and thus delay the switch over to increased gasoline production. Short-term prediction for tne next six months show gasoline prices dropping back after the summer. It's a pattern as familiar as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west. There hasn't been a new refinery built in this country for the past 30 years. Why? Unprofitable? Yes, after taking into account the cost of trying to wade through a gauntlet of government regulations. Some of those regulations are necessary, and some are well-intentioned but badly designed. This isn't a problem fixed overnight. The time from beginning a search for new oil fields and gasoline from that field reaching the pump is at least 10 years, perhaps more.I should add, however, that work has begun on the construction of several new refineries and the expansion of several others. Though refinery capacity does not change crude oil supply, it might alleviate some of the seasonal cycling in gasoline prices. Whether that will ease people's distress is unclear.
The fourth consideration, gasoline taxes, hasn't had much, if any, attention during the current gasoline price surge. I will repeat what I stated so that I can tag an addendum onto my comments:
Taxes in this instance are easy to understand. Yes, the anti-tax politicians (who try to get elected on the "no taxes ever it's all free" delusion that sells to non-thinking voters) are yelling that the reason for the increase in gasoline prices is taxes. Rubbish. Here and there a few states have increased gasoline taxes but during this last gasoline price run-up taxes haven't changed. They should, of course, because a ten cent per gallon gasoline tax enacted in 1970 to pay for road maintenance needs to be more than that to provide the same level of maintenance. These politicians scream that the solution is to reduce gasoline taxes. Well, then who pays for road maintenance? And what does that do to the "there's an energy crisis and something needs to change" message? These politicians are catering to the uneducated emotionally upset folks, some of whom, granted, operate businesses that are adversely affected by gasoline price increases (such as florists and pizzarias that deliver). Sorry, but pass those costs onto the consumer. If anything, taxes should be increased. That's the case in most other nations, where the true cost of consuming a gallon of gasoline, in terms of impact on highway infrastructure, environment, police highway patrols, accidents, and all of the other economic effects of driving is reflected in the gasoline tax. Yes, I'm back to my preference for the user fee model.When I suggested that gasoline price increases incurred by businesses be passed onto the consumer, I was not suggesting using "gasoline prices have increased" as an excuse to raise prices by more than the prorated portion of the increase. My somewhat overstated example of what at least some lawn contractors are doing may not be the numbers applicable to most who are doing so, but they demonstrate a pattern that often is seen in businesses dealing with supply price increases, namely, establishing consumer price increases higher than the supply price increase. In the ideal free market, customers challenge these increases. I know someone who did (no, not me), and the entrepreneur relented. Unfortunately, most people don't have the skill, time, or willingness to "work the numbers" and determine if they are getting the short end of the deal. After all, I guess that sort of exercise reminds people of doing taxes, and triggers some sort of traumatic response.
The fifth consideration,tapping the strategic petroleum reserve, has also disappeared from the current conversation, so I'll simply state that nothing has happened that changes my conclusion that tapping into it to alleviate gasoline prices is unwise.
If the current gasoline price increases are so horrible, would we not begin to see some changes in lifestyle? Here and there a person is quoted by a news reporter as having cut back driving or combined errands into one trip, but what I've seen on the roads and in life generally suggests that most Americans aren't adversely affected, or don't see the connection between their lifestyle and driving habits and gasoline prices. Fifteen months ago, I pointed out five significant lifestyle or behavioral factors that contribute to higher gasoline prices, principally on the demand side, namely, development sprawl, teen-age autonomy, inefficient public transportation, insufficient telecommuting, and impulse decisions. Read the earlier post for the details. After fifteen months of increasing gasoline prices and record-setting crude oil prices, sprawl continues unabated, as developments continue to pop up "in the middle of nowhere" miles from stores, offices, hospitals, and other necessary facilities. Many teen-agers continue to drive to school rather than ride school busses. Public transportation, long hampered by its inability to move most people quickly from where they are to where they want to go in a straight line, has been saddled with the impact of terrorism and a drop-off in ridership. Until someone invents a cheap, safe, alternative along the lines of a custom carpool system, not much supply efficiency will be realized in this sector. I don't know if telecommuting has increased. If it has, it hasn't been a significant change, because the quantity of vehicles on the local roads during commuting hours has surely not decreased. Have people managed to condense errands into fewer trips and to cut down on the impulse run to the store? I don't know. Traffic volume suggests no, that hasn't happened.
I didn't expect much to change, and predicted that in my May 2004 post:
None of this can or will be changed in the near future. Houses have been built where they are and they're not going to be moved. Jobs are where they are. It would take years to get public transportation back to where it once was, that is, something that was of good use to most Americans. Maybe high schools can compel the use of school busses, or perhaps the driving age can be increased to 18 (for reasons far more important than gasoline consumption), but let's face it: not going to happen. Telecommuting and distance learning probably will increase over the next few decades but not at rates that would alone offset increases in per capita driving mileage. What MIGHT change driving patterns is an increase in gasoline prices (yes, increase) through taxes (yes, taxes) to levels comparable with world prices, reflecting inflation, and sufficient to keep the highway infrastructure in repair (remembering that bad roads cause decline in fuel efficiency).And I noted that my analysis wouldn't play in the political universe or in the media world of sound bites.
I did some driving this summer. Enough to figure out that at 65 mph the fuel mileage was 10 to 15 percent higher than at 75 or 80 mph. Yes, those speeds were within the applicable speed limits. At one time maximum mileage was said to be at 55 mph, but perhaps it's improved technology or the fifth gear in the transmission that has shifted that higher, at least for the vehicle I was driving. For several reasons, including fuel efficiency but also involving the more relaxing nature of 70 mph as compared to 80 mph, I settled in, where possible, for 70 mph. I could have been killed. I was a roadblock, even when speed limits were at 60 or 65. Yesterday, back home, driving at 62 on a highway with a 55 mph speed limit, the doors were almost blown off the vehicle by the traffic that went by, at speeds easily in the 75 to 90 mph range. I may have passed two or three vehicles, not counting a slow-moving truck. If these folks are upset about gasoline prices, they're surely not showing it by their driving actions. Do they even know that by slowing down to 60 or even 65 mph, still above the speed limit, that they will reduce gasoline consumption by 10 to 15 percent? As an interesting aside, it wasn't just the high-performance sports cars that zoomed by. Minivans, panel trucks, SUVs, sedans, motorcycles, you name it, they got to some checkered flag somewhere before I did. Well, I never saw it. Even though they flashed by, I could see these drivers. Young, old, male, female, every size, shape and color. Everyone is in a hurry (except, of course, when they're in front of me in a line). I'll leave that discussion for some other time. The difference between 65 mph and 75 mph for a 65 mile trip is 8 minutes. For a 16 mile trip, it's 2 minutes. For an 8 mile run, it's 1 minute. Putting aside the increased risk of accident, is that 1 minute or 2 minutes worth the additional $2 for gasoline consumed? Americans seem to be voting with their accelerator pedal and griping with their mouth. So what's louder? The action, or the words?
As I pointed out fifteen months ago, when a crisis really hits, and lines begin forming at the pumps, then a lot of people will start running around, and screaming, and shouting, and asking, "How did this come to be?" and "Why weren't we warned?" And all the folks who yelled "Chicken Little" at the prophets will begin picking up pieces of the sky.