I'm sure you've already seen this, but Steve Forbes has a great article in the WSJ regarding the flat tax. Of course, having read this article, I was reminded about a discussion you and I had about two years ago on this same topic. I'm sure you've probably discussed this topic ad nauseum with other people, but I would like to get your take on his plan.I suppose the flat tax plan, no matter which version is current in vogue, is the tax reform idea that will not die.
His plan calls for (I'm outlining the basic plan) the following:
(1) a 17% flat tax on all income;
(2) no tax liability for families that make under $47K;
(3) a 17% corporate tax rate (with immediate deductions for business expenses, thus no depreciation!);
(4) a 0% capital gains tax; and
(5) elimination of the death tax
Overall, I like this plan because it would simplify the tax code and result in an economic expansion (although I cannot say this for sure). At the very least, I think it would be easier to comprehend than the current system (then again, anything, including quantum physics is easier to understand than the current system).
This specific Forbes plan has been criticized by Michael Kinsley and others, and Forbes has penned a rebuttal. Despite all of the arguments, there are a few simple things about "flat tax" plans that need to be understood.
Flat Rates
As Kinsley notes, the basic rate structure is not the cause of tax complexity. Although there is a wee bit of multistep computational exercise in calculating tax at x% on the first $n and at y% on the next $m, computer software can handle that task and most taxpayers who paid attention during arithmetic class can figure out a tax liability even without the aid of a computer, though a calculator could come in handy. On the other hand, removing the alternative minimum tax and scrapping the special corporate taxes would be a worthwhile simplification. And keep in mind that so long as there are progressive rates, some sort of mitigation system and its complex computations is required to deal with after-the-fact adjustments in income.
What makes the tax law complicated is the definition (or computation) of the taxable income with respect to which the tax liability is computed, and the proliferation of artificial social policy credits that are subtracted from tax liability. The latter are even more convoluted than first meets the eye because some are refundable, and some are not, some can be carried over to other years and some can not, and some allowable against the alternative minimum tax and some are not.
Tax simplification will occur only when the special interest infections in the tax law are wiped out. Despite law professors taking their students on tours of the definitional edges of "what is income," in most instances income stands up and identifies itself. It's the exclusion list, the deduction list, and the timing rules that take the simple thing and make it unduly complicated. To the extent that any reform proposal, flat or otherwise, removes the exclusions and deductions, it simplifies the tax law. But political support would disappear once taxpayers understood that deductions for home mortgage interest would end, that scholarships and gifts would be included in the tax base, and employee fringe benefits would be taxed. Of course, the emotional outcry would prevent most people from taking the next logical thinking step, which would be to consider the huge decline in tax rates that such a truly broad base would permit.
I can hear the shouts now. "It is immoral to tax scholarships because these are poor kids trying to get an education." Au contraire! If they are truly poor, and a income less than the poverty level or something equivalent to it is exempt from tax, the youngster with only a $12,000 need-based scholarship would not be taxed, but the independently wealthy but highly intelligent student with a $12,000 merit scholarship would probably incur some small amount of tax. Similarly, taxing all social security received in excess of the employee contribution is a proposal that triggers cries of horror from every corner, but it makes no sense to tax more or less than what the recipient has received over and above his or her contributions, and again, the wealthy person hauling in these payments would be taxed and the poor person would not. All of the shenanigans in section 86 could go down the drain.
It would take, at most, one millisecond before the "my activities are special" bleatings begin to fill the hallways of Congress. This mentality, which is self-focused and cannot put the overall common good above the narrow-minded concerns of the self-appointed special, would bring highway traffic to a halt if it were applied to bridge and turnpike tolls. "We're on our way to college, so we get a discount on the toll that will take 20 minutes to compute...Hey, honey, do you have that information on how many nonqualified courses Johnny is taking?" "Hey, speed it up, my spouse and I are on social security and we need to figure out if we use the base amount or the modified base amount in computing the toll." "We're on our way to a hospital. Can we go through now for free and pay double when we return?" You get the picture. Do members of Congress see it?
Exemption Amounts
The idea that income under a specific amount should not be taxed makes sense. The tough question is faced when it is time to determine that amount. Should it be based on individual income? Household income? Marital unit income? Extended family income? I have proposed, over and over again, to no avail, that the amount should be computed for each individual, that it should reflect 110% (or some similar percentage) of the poverty level, and that an individual whose income is less than the exemption should be permitted to transfer or sell any "unneeded" (excess) exemption to anyone else. A similar arrangement exists with respect to pollution credits, and in the context of the income tax it would generate income for the poor and tax savings for self-defined groups, ranging from marital units to mutual friends and unmarried siblings sharing a household. It moves part of the tax law out of the government and into the private free market. Rarely is this proposal criticized. It simply is ignored. That suggests to me that it frightens a lot of people who are in the power elite. That, in turn, suggests to me that it poses a threat because it might, just might, work. And be the first crack in the present system of designing tax law.
Flat Corporate Rates and the Elimination of Depreciation
If I had my way, corporate income would be taxed to the owners of the corporation. Many other people share that idea, but it never seems to get off the ground. So long as corporations must be taxed, that is, assuming they cannot or do not elect to be treated as an S corporation whose income is in fact taxed to the shareholders, then the argument for a single rate fails for the same reason it fails in the individual context. It isn't the reason for complexity. Corporate tax law is complicated not only for the same reason as is individual income taxation (exclusions, deductions, credits, timing, etc.) but because the structural transactions of corporations, such as divisions, mergers, reorganizations, and similar changes, are subject to a complex maze of tax rules most of which could be eliminated if the special interest groups were pushed to the side.
The question of whether expenditures for property that is not consumed within the taxable year should be deducted has been vexing tax policy for decades. One side claims that income used to purchase buildings, equipment and other property ought not be taxed. The other side points out that the tax law is so twisted that people who purchase office buildings are permitted to deduct depreciation even as those buildings increase in value. I think the compromise would bring quiet to the room, at least until the tar and feathers are ready. I'd agree to deducting the cost of a building if the taxpayers agree to include in income the increase in wealth that occurs when the building increases in value. Why should a corporation, or any other business for that matter, be allowed a deduction when it is increasing its wealth? It makes no sense.
The Zero Percent Capital Gains Tax
This is the deal breaker. Forbes wants to retain the special treatment of capital gains. Most tax practitioners, but few taxpayers, know that at least one-third, and perhaps one-half of the complexity in the substantive portion of the Internal Revenue Code, a similar portion of the regulations, and a huge chunk of rulings and cases, arise from the need to distinguish capital gains from other income. The existence of any capital gains tax break encourages taxpayers to play the "let's make ordinary income look like a capital gain" game. What a waste of time. Income is income. The bartender doesn't ask if the dollars being used to pay for a drink are capital gains dollars or ordinary income dollars. The only plausible argument for treating capital gains differently is that some of the gain is artificial because it reflects inflation. The solution to that problem is to index the adjusted basis of property, just as all sorts of amounts in the tax law are adjusted for inflation. It's easily done, and it would permit trashing a huge portion of the tax law.
Any "flat tax" that has a capital gains preference is not going to be simple. Not by any stretch of the imagination. And the presence of such a preference in a proposal is an excellent clue as to the consequences of such a flat tax, whether or not that consequence is intended or simply misunderstood by the proponent. And until and unless the American tax-paying public comes to understand what's going on with the capital gains game, the prospects for genuine reform are slim.
Elimination of the estate tax
I have mixed feelings about this one. The gap between the haves and have nots is widening, and the middle class is beginning to disappear. So the emotional reaction is a temptation to advocate some sort of "tax the [fill in the adjective] rich" provision, whether it is the very rich, exceedingly rich, super rich, filthy rich, whatever. But logic also suggests that the cost of administering an estate tax, especially when it affects such a minuscule percentage of estates, is inefficient.
There are two easier ways of achieving the same goal. The first is to tax unrealized gains at death, subject to a rate that reflects the bunching effect of putting all that income into the final income tax return of the decedent. Perhaps "year of death" gains should indeed be subject to lower rates, coupled with a much higher exemption amount. The second is to tax unrealized gains as they are realized (remember the folks who want deductions for property that is increasing in value?), with a deferral of the tax payment until property is sold and cash becomes available. The tax payment provision is not a new one; it already exists in the tax law for certain estate tax situations.
Either of these two solutions removes the emotional argument that is made on the repeal side of the issue. It would eliminate the "it's being taxed twice" argument, one that does not withstand logical analysis even when the current income and estate tax structure is considered.
I'm sure this is much more than Nakul had expected. No, wait, he's been in my courses, and he knew that my short email response to him would expand when I took this to the blog. And none of it is news to him. He's heard, at least one and probably a few times, my income tax reform plan: genuinely expand the base by removing exclusions and deductions, provide a substantial per-individual transferable exemption, trash the social policy credits, and subject the taxable income to a genuinely progressive rate structure. And he has heard me say that the chances of this happening are slim to none.
But it is fun to discuss. And it is fun to write about it. Even if it is ad nauseum. What's nauseous, of course, is a close look at the existing tax law.