From my perspective, the question is whether the Tax Reform Panel has lived up to its charge.
When the President established the panel in early January of this year, it was, to quote from the Panel's web site, to "advise on options to reform the tax code to make it simpler, fairer, and more pro-growth to benefit all Americans." The policy options, as a group, were to be revenue neutral. More specifically, the options were to meet these three goals:
simplify Federal tax laws to reduce the costs and administrative burdens of compliance with such laws;How can anyone take issue with these goals? Simplification, reduction of compliance burdens, job creation, and all those other lofty ideals. So let's see how the Panel fared.
share the burdens and benefits of the Federal tax structure in an appropriately progressive manner while recognizing the importance of homeownership and charity in American society; and
promote long-run economic growth and job creation, and better encourage work effort, saving, and investment, so as to strengthen the competitiveness of the United States in the global marketplace.
The panel's suggestions consist of these proposals:
* Cut back, but do not eliminate, the exclusion from gross income of employer payments for employee health insurance premiums and health care.
* Widen and simplify tax-free savings plans.
* Increase and index for inflation the limit on gain excluded from gross income because it arises from sale of a principal residence.
* Eliminate the deduction of state and local taxes by individuals.
* Make the charitable contribution deduction allowable in computing adjusted gross income, but only for contributions exceeding 1% of income.
* Reduce the home mortgage interest deduction limitation from interest on the first $1,000,000 of mortgage loans to interest on the first $x of mortgage interest, where $x is the maximum amount that can be insured by federal mortgage insurance programs, an amount that varies by county. In the Philadelphia area, $x is approximately $235,000.
* Permit all individuals to deduct health insurance premiums.
* Eliminate the alternative minimum tax.
* Reduce the number of tax brackets from 6 to 4, with the top rate at 33% rather than 35%.
* Reduce the tax rate on interest income to match the rates currently applicable to dividends and capital gains.
* Reduce the tax rate on domestic dividends to zero.
* Enact a simplified family credit that expands the existing child credit.
* Replace some deductions with credits.
* Replace the personal and dependency exemptions with credits.
* Create a refundable savings credit for low-income taxpayers.
In general, one does not need a detailed analysis of these provisions to evaluate the package. Those who want more detail should take a look at Dan Shaviro's helpful summary.
So here I go:
Simplification
1. This is not simplification, aside from elimination of the alternative minimum tax and elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes by individuals. However, this deduction is one of less complicated provisions in the code, or at least it was until the sales tax deduction was restored, so its repeal isn't quite cleaning up the tax code mess.
2. Reducing the limitation on mortgage interest deductions is more complicated because of the tie-in to the variable mortgage insurance limit.
3. Changing a full exclusion for employer-provided health care to a limited exclusion necessarily adds complexity.
4. Shifting the charitable contribution deduction from an itemized deduction to one allowable in computing gross income adds complexity.
5. Expanding the deduction for health insurance may or may not be complicated, depending on how it is drafted. My guess? It will be complicated.
6. Reducing the number of tax brackets doesn't do anything with respect to simplification.
7. Reducing the tax rate on interest income adds complexity because it will be necessary to define interest income that qualifies for the reduced rate. The definition will not be one sentence.
8. Eliminating the tax on domestic dividends also adds complexity because, again, it will be necessary to define domestic dividends qualifying for this zero tax treatment.
9. Guaranteed, simplification of the family credit will not be simple.
10. Replacing deductions with credits in and of itself does not affect the complexity built into the definitions and requirements for the deduction or credit benefit.
11. If the refundable savings credit is anything like the parade of other credits recently added to the Code, it will not be a victory for simplification.
12. And what about the complicated, inconsistent, bewildering array of provisions affecting education of which the panel made a big deal a few months ago?
Score: F, and I wish there were an F- grade.
Reduction of the Cost and Burden of Compliance
1. Let's see. OK, the alternative minimum tax form disappears, so that's a plus. And the 2 minutes required to compute the deduction for state and local taxes gets added back to the lives of tax return preparers and to the lives of taxpayers who would be digging around for the check or receipt. That's a tiny plus.
2. Employers will need more time and money to figure out how much gross income must be reported to employees on the W-2 on account of employer-provided health plans, and there will be one more line on the return for that.
3. New and enlarged forms for the savings credit, tax-free savings plans, and the family credit adds to the cost and burden of compliance.
4. A deduction for health insurance premiums means more record-keeping and another line on the return.
5. Figuring out what is interest and what is a domestic dividend takes time, records must be kept, Schedule B must be modified to separate one kind from another, so it grows. Pages of special rules meshing these proposals with pass-through entities will do nothing but complicate tax planning and compliance for partnerships, S corporations, trusts, REITs, etc.
If all of this happens, there will be more forms, and more lines on existing forms, despite the removal of the alternative minimum tax form from the inventory.
Score: F.
Share the Burdens and Benefits of the Federal Tax Structure in an Appropriately Progressive Manner
Do any of these proposals heighten progressivity?
Yes, these appear to have that impact:
Cutting back the exclusion for employer-provided health care, eliminating the deduction of state and local taxes, reducing the home mortgage interest deduction cap, creating a refundable savings credit for low-income taxpayers, converting deductions to credits.
Do any of these proposals reduce progressivity?
Yes, these have that impact:
Eliminating the alternative minimum tax, reducing the top rate and the number of tax brackets, reducing the tax rate on interest, eliminating the tax on domestic dividends.
Putting these together, it's more likely to decrease than increase progressivity. So the challenge is to define the word "appropriately" in the phrase "appropriately progressive manner." Considering that I consider lower rates for dividends and capital gains to be inappropriate, more of the same also is inappropriate.
Score: D
Recognizing the Importance of Homeownership and Charity in American Society
The proposals do not eliminate the deduction for mortgage interest, and by turning it into a credit, the panel suggests something that, at least in theory, will make home acquisition economically easier for those most under-represented in the housing market, namely, low-income taxpayers. Adjusting the exclusion amount for home sales helps, but perhaps the amount should not be so high?
Making charitable contribution deductions available to taxpayers who do not itemize deductions might encourage more charitable giving, but will it? Most taxpayers who do not itemize are low-income taxpayers, and those taxpayers might not be in the best position to increase their charitable giving. And why not make the charitable contribution deduction a credit?
It would have been nice to see a wholesale re-write of the charitable contribution deduction. It is a forest of tangled threads, a contraption with which almost every Congress has tinkered, and a trap for the unwary.
Score: C
Promoting Long-Run Economic Growth and Job Creation
When was the last time a tax bill was not tagged as promoting economic growth and job creation? When was the last time a tax bill in fact triggered economic growth and job creation? Get out the tea leaves, the cards, the crystal balls, and the palms of your hand. This one will be debated until debating the proposals is moot, and then the debate will morph into more law review articles and commentary.
Score: Incomplete
Better Encouraging Work Effort, Saving, and Investment
Now, seriously, who is going to undertake or increase work effort because taxes on capital gains, dividends, and interest are lower? Or because the top rate would be 33%? Or because there would be 4 rather than 6 tax brackets? Or because a portion of employer-provided health insurance would be taxed? Or because deductions become credits? I don't see it.
Yes, those with money to spare might be tempted to invest rather than consume. Eliminating the tax on domestic dividends and reducing the tax on interest might have that effect. The problem at the moment is that most Americans don't have money to spare. Some could, if they cut back consumption, but is cutting back consumption the answer? Wouldn't that make the economic status of those producing the consumed goods and services a bit less pleasant?
Score: D
Strengthening the Competitiveness of the United States in the Global Marketplace
Perhaps what is contemplated is the following. The proposals will encourage investment, and that investment will be plowed into domestic production, creating domestic jobs. Consumption would be discouraged, and somehow that means China sells less stuff here, so that China acquires fewer American dollars. In the meantime, the new domestic production has Chinese citizens falling over one another trying to buy American products. Something like that.
Well, guess what? The Chinese prefer to either pirate the American product, counterfeit the American product, or purchase the source of the raw materials used by Americans to create product. Guess what? Even if the rest of the world wanted American-produced stuff that it currently isn't purchasing, where will Americans find the labor force to create it? The tool and die industry is withered, for every petroleum engineer coming out of college there are 100 lawyers coming out of American law schools, the number of American students majoring in science and engineering has dropped almost off the face of the earth, and energy costs threaten to make the entire economy go under.
Score: F
What Would I Do?
I'd make taxes as much of a non-factor in business and personal economic and social decision-making. I would repeal most exclusions and deductions, retaining deductions for the cost of generating income. I would eliminate depreciation on property that typically does not depreciate, such as buildings. I would index adjusted basis for inflation. I would include unrealized appreciation in the final return, and eliminate the estate tax. I would provide a flat exemption equal to a percentage (100% or higher) of poverty-level income. I would create more, not fewer, tax brackets, so that there would be less incentive to manipulate taxable income from one bracket to the next. I would require that any attempted use of the tax law to encourage or discourage specific non-economic behavior be proposed as a credit, and be advertised to all citizens in full-page newspapers, and through radio, television, cable and internet messages, with the words, "Senators A and B and Representatives C, D, and E propose to give credits of $x to people who do (or don't do) y, and this credit will require increasing the taxes of other taxpayers by $z," limiting the passage of such legislation to instances where there was overwhelming support. I might be persuaded to tack on a referendum arrangement. You get the picture. No more tax games because the tax playing field gets closed. The panel wants to mow the grass a little shorter. Ho hum.
And So?
The bottom line? I'm not impressed. That's no surprise. I saw this coming. On January 12 of this year, days after the panel was appointed, I wrote, "So back we come to tax reform. I hold out little hope." On April 25 I pointed out that it would have been "far less expensive, and far less time consuming" had the Tax Reform Panel "Simply ... Read My Books" after the panel concluded that there were "too many deductions [and] credits" in the code. As I predicted, "It's time for change. It probably won't happen." And just last week, when the first of the proposals began to see the light of day in the press, I wrote:
With this sort of work product, the panel should refund to the taxpayers the public funds it has wasted. Charged with reform, this panel seems dedicated to window dressing that masks maintenance of the status quo for their friends and financial backers. America is being short-changed.The rest of the proposals don't change my opinion.
My prediction is that the combination of the erosion of the Administration's political capital and the power of the vested interests will combine to do one of two things. Either the proposal will collect dust somewhere, probably in the Congress, or the subset of Republicans who are anti-tax will join forces with certain vested interests to enact what the powerful want, namely, reduced or no taxes on investment income, modification of the alternative minimum tax so that it applies to the middle class but not the wealthy, and reduction of the top rate, in exchange for a refundable credit of some sort directed to low-income families. In other words, more of the same, at least so long as the same chefs are working in the tax kitchen.