In order to buy these bad debts, the Treasury needs money. The legislation authorizes up to $700 billion of purchases. Where does the Treasury get this sort of money? If the question was asked of you or me, the answer would be, "We don't." The Treasury, however, has several options. The legislation authorizes the Treasury to borrow money. Under the proposal, the nation's debt ceiling would increase to $11.315 trillion. The legislation does not appear to prohibit the Treasury from "printing" money, although other considerations may make that option unlikely. And though the legislation says nothing about raising taxes, that is not something the Treasury can do on its own, though it could ask the Congress to do so, an outcome unlikely so long as the current Administration is in office.
Each of these three options, including the two that are unlikely to be pursued, pose their own grave dangers to the economic vitality of the nation. Printing money kicks inflation into high gear. Raising taxes draws down the ability of businesses and consumers to pay their bills, make purchases, and pay off debt. Borrowing money increases interest rates, which benefits some investors and hurts borrowers. Borrowing money also makes the nation even more beholden to those in a position to lend the money, namely, foreign countries and foreign investors rolling in dollars accumulated when Americans purchased foreign oil, foreign goods, and foreign services. Having a nation that spends beyond its means borrow even more money to bail out bad debts arising from individuals who spent beyond their means is not unlike pouring gasoline on a fire.
The Secretary of the Treasury admitted that the plan puts taxpayers at considerable risk. He thinks that eventually the Treasury will be able to sell some of the assets it buys and thus recover some of the money. Excuse me, but who is going to buy these assets? If people aren't knocking down the doors now to acquire them, why will they do so in a month, a year, or a decade? The only answer is that perhaps things will change. Sounds like a gamble to me, a gamble not unlike the practices that have created this mess.
When I criticized the so-called economic stimulus payments, in Can a Tax Rebate Band-Aid Stop the Economic Bleeding? , I explained why it makes no sense to toss good money after bad:
The issuance of tax rebates will enlarge the federal deficit. At some point, that deficit will haunt the economy in ways that no tax rebate, even an abolition of taxes, will cure. So long as consumption exceeds production, so long as more wealth, particularly dollars, flow out of the country than flow into the country, so long as certain items remain in short supply and project to remain that way, the nation's economic and financial health will worsen. Tax rebates will not increase the supply of clean water, oil, natural gas, or any of the other resources mismatched to the demands of the world population. In some ways, it makes the question about who should get a tax rebate seem trivial, almost like fighting over a deck chair on a sinking ship.That the debt crisis is a symptom of a deeper problem is apparent to those who think about the situation carefully. As I also wrote in Can a Tax Rebate Band-Aid Stop the Economic Bleeding? :
It gets better. To finance the tax rebates, the Treasury will need to borrow money, because it doesn't have spare cash sitting around. From whom will it borrow? Someone with dollars to unload. Who might that be? Could it be the People's Republic of China? Saudi Arabia? The United Arab Emirates? Some international bank? Whoever it turns out to be, they will be looking for two things. They will want interest, because they're not going to lend the money for nothing. And ultimately they will want the debt repaid. Who pays the interest? Who repays the debt? It will be the taxpayers of the third, fourth, and subsequent decades of this century. These taxpayers, already burdened with individual debt, will discover that they lack sufficient funds to buy the things they need and the luxuries they desire without going into more debt. From whom will they borrow? At what point do the creditors say, literally, "We own you."
This nation has been living beyond its means for far too long. Most people, though not all people, in this nation have been living beyond their means. Some people need to live beyond their means simply to survive. A family of four trying to live on income of $25,000 will be racking up some of that credit card debt that has reached a total of almost one trillion dollars. Some people live beyond their means because they simply must have what they want. A very small slice of the population does not live beyond its means because its means are so huge that the limits of time and space prohibit a person from spending that much money. So these folks join the creditor nations in making most Americans their economic vassals. And to think we concluded the middle ages ended a few centuries ago. What a surprise!
The irony in the proposal is that the investment bankers who are screaming for assistance from the federal government are the same people who were railing against government regulation and intervention when they were racking up profits constructed out of theoretical home value increases. In Greed, Stupidity, Poor Judgment, and Taxes, written about a year ago, I criticized attempts to "solve" the problem by using the tax law to grant tax relief to speculators and gamblers. I wrote, "People and industries who damage the nation’s economy, health, environment, or defense posture ought to face the consequences of what they have done." I pointed out that a nation whose economy rests on the notion of a free market is placed at risk when market freedom is squashed by greed, stupidity, and poor judgment. I noted that to the extent existing provisions in the tax law encourage the sort of speculator behavior that has contributed to the crisis, those provisions should be repealed or modified. I also asked why an industry that made money lending to speculators and collecting fees when placing questionable mortgages was unable to use its profits to tide itself over when times got tough. I suggested that the lenders should disgorge those profits, though I suspect those profits have been funneled offshore. Very recently, in Risk Premiums With a Greed Tax?, I proposed instituting a fee or tax to encourage future gamblers think twice before taking risks and then trying to shift the cost onto others.
In my mind, I see a nation five, ten years from now, saddled with crushing debt, populated by bankrupt and near-bankrupt individuals, riddled with all sorts of economic problems, and struggling to survive as a world debtor beholden to a few foreign nations, while those who profited from the unregulated economic free-for-all of the 2000s bask in the sunshine in some litigation-proof haven. I'm sure my vision will alarm those who decry my resurgent pessimism, and again, I hope I am wrong. I would be glad to be wrong. But when I consider the predictions I made a year ago and three years ago, and then take a look at the current headlines, I continue to have little faith that those who kept telling us that "everything would be fine" have the ability to make it so.