The consequences of a default by the federal government on its debt would begin to appear before it actually “ran out of money.” Even if the default was short-lived, the catastrophic economic consequences would, according to the Secretary of the Treasury, “last for decades.” A protracted stalemate would make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.Nine days later, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Republican Senator Pat Toomey, after declaring that all should agree that “Under no circumstances is it acceptable for the U.S. to default on its debt,” claimed that “even if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, a default on our debt need not follow when our borrowings reach their limit in the next few months.” He also claimed, “In fact, if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, the federal government will still have far more than enough money to fully service our debt. Next year, for instance, about 6.5% of all projected federal government expenditures will go to interest on our debt, and tax revenue is projected to cover about 67% of all government expenditures. With roughly 10 times more income than needed to honor our debt obligations, why would we ever default?” Toomey explained that he plans to introduce legislation that would require the Treasury to make interest payments on our debt its first priority in the event that the debt ceiling is not raised.” He argues that, “This would not only ensure the continued confidence of investors at home and abroad, but would enable us to have an honest debate about the consequences of our eventual decision about the debt ceiling.” Toomey adds, “If we do not raise it [the debt ceiling], the government's tax revenue will enable us to fund roughly two-thirds of projected expenditures, including interest payments.”
And yet the Republicans, and far too many Americans, carry on as though there is no catastrophic tidal wave building up out at sea. Those who raise the alarm are viewed as the Reincarnation of Chicken Little, as alarmists who don’t understand that it is possible – according to the wizards of tax reduction and elimination – to cut taxes, cut spending, and eliminate the budget deficit without actually identifying and cutting the spending for any specific federal program. Wow.
Toomey’s goal of curbing the federal budget deficit is laudable. Though he complains about increased spending as a cause of the deficit, he makes no reference to the tremendous increase in military spending during the past decade that not only was funded through money borrowed chiefly from overseas investors and foreign nations, but that was incurred in the face of continuing and increased tax cuts. But that’s not the worst flaw of his reasoning.
Toomey leaves out of his analysis the psychological element. If the Congress refuses to increase the debt ceiling, investors will react by dumping their holdings in U.S. debt, long before the government misses an interest payment. This dumping won’t be a matter of investors selling off the debt. It will take place as investors decline to re-invest in Treasury obligations when they receive the proceeds of the obligations coming due within the next few years. Fear of being the “last investor in the game” will deter the reinvestment. Consider that during the next year almost $2.5 trillion of Treasury obligations will come due, as summarized in this chart, for reasons explained in this prescient warning with respect to the shortening of maturities on Treasury obligations. In other words, not only must the government pay interest on the outstanding debt, it must also come up with cash to pay off the maturing obligations. Usually, it does so by issuing new obligations, but will it be able to raise $2.5 trillion if the Congress has frozen the debt ceiling? Even if some investors decide to “roll over” their investments, the reverberations through world stock, commodity, and other markets if even one-quarter or one-third of the required cash cannot be raised will be tremendous. And it’s likely that what does get raised will demand higher interest rates, thus wedging even more spending into future federal budgets.
Worse, Toomey not only fails to take into account the need to repay principal, he tosses out facts that don’t survive scrutiny when examined closely. Toomey claims that there is “roughly 10 times more income than needed to honor our debt obligations.” The arithmetic belies this claim. The total debt is roughly $14 trillion, whereas estimated total federal receipts for 2010 is about $2.5 trillion. A good chunk of those receipts “belong” to the social security and related trust funds. Even if those receipts were available to “honor our debt obligations,” how can the government pay the $360 billion it owes in interest, plus pay the $2.5 trillion that is due in principal repayment, when it has $2.5 trillion of receipts? Basic arithmetic tells me that “roughly 10 times more income” means Toomey thinks federal receipts top $28 trillion per year. No wonder he and his comrades think taxes are too high. Even I would cringe at the sort of taxation level that would generate $28 trillion in receipts. It takes just a moment to identify the flaw in Toomey’s facts. He views the nation as honoring its debt obligations if it pays the interest that is due. Well, sort of. For the income to be “roughly 10 times” more than the interest that is due, government receipts would need to be roughly $3.6 trillion a year. Oops.
By equating interest payment obligations with “debt obligations,” Toomey ignores principal repayments, and appears to think that when these obligations become due the nation’s creditors necessarily will pony up cash to pay for replacement obligations even though the debt ceiling has not been raised and debt principal hasn’t been paid down. Investors will NOT be racing to the Treasury seeking to put their cash into more debt. Why not? Consider a corporation that borrows money, continues to spend beyond its income, refuses to increase its income, and eventually gets to the point where it can borrow no more money (either because of the market or because of some state or federal law regulating the amount of debt the corporation can incur). It’s true that the corporation can make payment of interest on the debt a priority, but it’s going to start defaulting on other payments, and long before it gets to a point of failing to pay principal, the credit markets are going to write off or sell off the corporation’s debt, and it will plummet into insolvency and bankruptcy.
So what happens if the debt that is due within the next year is not repaid because investors fear the consequences of a frozen debt ceiling? The entirety of all federal receipts would be required to pay off the investors holding the obligations that have come due. I’m not sure where the government would find $360 billion to pay interest. Not only would nothing be put into the social security and Medicare trust funds, those funds would not be able to make any payments, because their “assets” are tied up in Treasury debt which would not be convertible into cash because the Treasury would not have the resources to redeem that debt. There would be no money to finance the military, to staff and operate Homeland Security, the FBI, the CIA, the Center for Disease Control, the Food and Drug Administration. Taxes would be paid, but all federal government services would stop. Perhaps the Federal Reserve could churn out dollar bills, but the resulting inflation would dwarf that of the late 1970s and inject hyperinflation into the economy.
The nation is approaching, more and more quickly, the point of no economic return. I wonder when someone will make it clear to the entire nation, and not just to the few readers of this and a few other blogs who understand the maxim, a nation is doomed when it spends trillions on war while simultaneously continuing and increasing tax cuts that especially benefit the wealthy. I wonder when someone will succeed in persuading the nation that the only hope is a reversal of the mistake, even though it cannot be fully reversed. Even a partial reversal poses the possibility of redemption. Toomey wants “concrete steps toward fiscal sanity.” Would not undoing the fiscal insanity of the past decade be the place to start?