Now comes news that the Administration’s proposed budget would generate a deficit of $1.65 trillion, roughly 10.9 percent of GDP. That would be the highest since 1945, when it reached 21.5 percent of GDP. In 1945, the nation was at war, a war that was declared and a war that was financed, to the fullest extent possible, by taxation representing increases over pre-war levels.
Slightly different numbers emerge from other analysts. For example, the US Government spending web site puts the 1945 deficit as 24.07 percent of GDP, following 1944’s 22.35 percent and 1943’s 28.05 percent. During those same years, according to another chart on that site, government spending as a percentage of GDP during 1943 through 1945 amounted to 46.68, 50.02, and 52.99 percent of GDP. Rough computation tells us that tax receipts accounted for the difference. Thus, in those three war years, taxes represented 18.63 percent, 27.67 percent, and 28.92 percent of GDP.
Comparing those war year numbers with the current situation, using the Administration’s budget as the benchmark, taxes represent 14.8 percent of GDP, spending represents 25.7 percent of GDP, and the resulting deficit constitutes 10.9 percent of GDP. Do these numbers suggest that government spending is out of control, as certain segments of the electorate and of the business world contend? Hardly. Considering that the nation remains at war, in fact a war fought on at least as many fronts as was the war being waged in the 1940s, it makes sense to compare how responsible politicians managed the economy sixty years ago with how irresponsible politicians manage it today. During the last year of the war, government spending had reached 53 percent of the economy and taxation had reached 28.92 percent of it. Now, spending as a proportion of GDP has been cut by 51.5 percent (53 to 25.7), and taxes by 49 percent (28.92 to 14.8). In other words, both taxes and spending have been cut by roughly the same amount, and yet the anti-tax movement wants even more tax cuts.
What gets little attention in the mainstream media, on most blogs, and from most commentators, especially those supporting further reductions in taxation, is the impact on the deficit of not only the refusal of Congress to raise taxes in time of war, as happened in the 1940s and again in the 1960s, but also its foolish move to reduce taxes during a time of war. Not only did the series of resulting and continuing annual deficits contribute to the total accumulated deficit, the interest payments on those deficits have literally and figuratively compounded the problem. Five years ago, in A Memorial Day Essay on War and Taxation, a commentary which not only I have quoted on several occasions but which has been mentioned occasionally by other commentators far from the mainstream media, I explained why the failure of politicians to demonstrate leadership and ask for sacrifice from all citizens, and not just the dedicated members of the Armed Forces, was unwise and destined to create systemic economic and national security problems for the country:
I wasn't around during the last full-fledged, unlimited global conflict. Yet I've listened to as many tales as were shared with me by those alive at the time as I could find, and I've read and watched a lot. So I've heard and read about rationing, double shifts, postponed plans, substituted products, and sacrifice. Every tax practitioner, and every citizen, should understand that during World War Two income tax rates skyrocketed, wage withholding was introduced, and the entire revenue-expenditure structure was altered. War hung as a cloud over every life, and over every dollar. Is that good? I think so. Why? Because war is so serious and so terminal a course of action that it should not be permitted to recede to the background.Though sometimes when I re-read things that I have written, especially things written years or decades ago, I recognize where I could have used different words that would have made the piece better. Every once in a great while, I realize that I have changed my mind, or would have presented a different analysis. But every time I re-read what I wrote in A Memorial Day Essay on War and Taxation, I wonder what happened that day. Something inspired me. Something made me deeply concerned and almost angry. Perhaps it was the fact that while Americans were dying, and continue to die, most of the nation was rolling along, almost oblivious to the realities of the world. Something, culturally, is very wrong, and it’s not the efforts of a nation to help those who are in need, which is what some people want to eviscerate as the national price for waging war while lowering rather than raising taxes. Something, morally, also is very wrong. Leadership requires something more than gathering votes by telling people the nation asks less of them. Our parents and grandparents responded unselfishly. Can we not honor them by doing likewise?
Yet the current global war has not been managed in the same manner. Politicians have chosen to fight without increasing revenue, imposing rationing, or deferring projects and activities. In their defense, they argue that none of these things are necessary, that a nation can have its guns without giving up its butter. I disagree, and I happen to think that politicians are reluctant to do what needs to be done because they are more concerned about maintaining their position in office than in making the tough decisions that war requires. So our national leaders have chosen to put the cost of the current war on our children and grandchildren. Those who decry the huge deficits, triggered in part by war and in part by the almost insane concept of decreasing tax revenues (mostly for the wealthy) during wartime, pretty much focus on the economic impact. They ask if, or suggest that, our grandchildren will be facing income tax rates of 80 percent in order to reduce an unmanageable deficit. I think it will be worse. I think our children and their children and grandchildren will become subservient to our nation's creditors. The sovereignty of the United States of America is far from guaranteed, and is at risk. Were these considerations discussed when those in power decided that war can be done on the cheap?
War cannot be done on the cheap. War is not free. War ought not be purchased on a credit card. War is a national commitment. Hiding the true cost of war in order to influence a nation's willingness to engage in war is wrong. Ultimately, the price to be paid will be dangerously high.