Eight years ago, in Killing the Geese, I analyzed a similar proposal, one that would eliminate school district real property taxes and replace the revenue with local income taxes, local earned income taxes, increased real property taxes, and business receipts taxes. I explained that the problem with real property taxes is not the tax itself, but the application of the tax to people “whose incomes are fixed and whose homes continue to increase in value.” I pointed out that the real property tax is not a hardship for people with large amounts of income of any sort, and that tagging the real property tax as a tax on the elderly is misleading because many elderly do not own homes and thus do not pay the real property tax, some elderly are awash in income and do not experience hardship on account of the real property tax, and many people who are not elderly do experience difficulties because of the real property tax.
I then argued that if the real property tax is to be replaced, an equitable tax is what needs to be enacted. I explained that that Pennsylvania state income tax, though not necessarily the most efficient tax, is the most equitable tax available. I pointed out that the earned income tax is a terrible tax, one that burdens workers while letting the landed gentry off the hook. My advice with respect to the earned income tax, which clearly has not been heeded by the drafters of the latest legislative proposal on the issue, was simple: “Get rid of it. Do not encourage its proliferation.”
Five years ago, in Taxes and School Funding, I commented on the electoral defeat of the local school district income tax proposal discussed in A Perplexing Tax Vote Decision. I noted that with the defeat, attention would turn to possible sales tax increases to fund education, possible state income tax increases for the same purpose, and cuts in school spending. I pointed out that the sales tax is no less regressive than the property tax, income tax increases encounter the widespread “people don’t want taxes increased, period” obstruction, and cutting school spending revives the decades-old debate about WHAT to cut, and often causes cuts that have adverse long-term consequences for the country. I concluded that the “tax question is not the problem but a symptom,” that the discussion “needs to focus on the tension between what people want schools to do and what people are willing to pay for whatever it is that schools do,” and that disclosure of the cost of “each program, each mandate, and each activity” is necessary.
At least this time around, the drafters of the most recent proposal took my advice on another point. I suggested that school districts be permitted to piggyback onto the state income tax. The most recent proposal includes a provision not quite a piggyback but close enough. It also includes an increase in the state income tax.
The proposal faces all sorts of challenges. According the the Department of Revenue, eliminating the school district real property tax takes away about $12.5 billion in revenue. The proposed increases in other taxes and the enactment of new local income or earned income taxes would raise about $9 billion. Do the drafters of the legislation intend to make up the $3 billion shortfall by cutting education funding? Or by increasing other existing taxes? Or by proposing other new taxes? Is that what the “reserved” provisions are for?
Opposition also comes from the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center. It claims that the school district real property tax works well, and that the number of people facing hardship because of that tax constitute only two-tenths of one percent of home owners. That number, however, reflects the number of homes lost because of delinquent tax payments, and thus is both an understatement and an overstatement. There are people who manage to hang onto their homes while cutting back on necessities such as health care in order to make their real property tax payments. And some of the homes that were lost were taken from financially well-to-do people who thought ignoring real estate tax bills was a legitimate tax planning device.
Interestingly, one of the proponents of the legislation claims that if enacted, she would save more than is possible through a mortgage modification. But the risk is that, if enacted, the replacement tax revenue might be much more than the proponents claim or think. As I warned in Killing the Geese,
The impetus for all of this legislative busy-ness is the public dislike of real property taxes. Of course, the public dislikes all taxes, so don't expect a parade down Harrisburg's main street when one bad tax is replaced by another bad tax. Expect another decade of maneuvering to get rid of the replacement tax. To the advocates of real property tax repeal I have these words of advice: Be careful what you wish for. You might get it. And then being pining for the "good old days."Ultimately the issue isn’t what sort of tax, but who pays. I guarantee that those with the resources to do so are maneuvering into positions that will permit them to escape some, most, or even all of the burden of school funding.