The tax gap is the difference between what taxpayers should be paying if they were in full compliance with the tax law and successful in avoiding mistakes and what taxpayers actually pay in taxes. Note that the tax gap in question is the federal income tax gap, and surely states, especially those whose tax liability computations start with federal gross, adjusted gross, or taxable income, have their own income tax gaps.
I was not surprised by the Commissioner’s testimony. In , Tax Gap Becoming a Tax Chasm, I noted that “The tax gap for calendar year 2003, the latest year for which sufficient statistical information is currently available, is $1.0417 trillion.” My guess is that the tax gap in 2018, 2019, and 2020 probably exceeds not only $1 trillion but $1.5 trillion. What does surprise me is the willingness with which authorities accept the low figures reported by the IRS. For example, in Closing the Federal Tax Gap , I noted that in 2006, three years after the Bureau of Economic Analysis had computed the $1 trillion figure, the National Taxpayer Advocate issued a report pegging the annual tax gap as “somewhere between $250 to $300 billion.” I suppose the IRS is caught between a rock and a hard place. It could report the higher number in an effort to encourage Congress to stop cutting its budget and restore its ability to ramp up audits and foster compliance. But reporting that higher number poses the risk that Congress and others would judge the IRS as unworthy of any funding by treating it as the cause of the tax gap.
Much paper, ink, and digital bytes have been dedicated to discussion of the tax gap and proposals for dealing with it. I have no intention of trying to write a treatise about the tax gap. I simply will review some of the things I have written about it over the years. In Tax Gap Becoming a Tax Chasm, I noted:
One must wonder what motivates noncompliance. Perhaps some psychologists will conduct surveys to determine if it simply greed, or a growing rebellion in which people are "voting with their feet" by appropriating unto themselves their own special tax break that they cannot get through the Congress because they lack the clout of the lobbyists who have managed to reduce the tax on capital gains to extremely low levels. How much of the noncompliance is simple ignorance, stupidity, carelessness, or confusion? How much of the gap arises from people trying to hide information about the activities generating the income?In Closing the Federal Tax Gap, I shared these thoughts:Some people may not realize they are contributing to the tax gap, because they are making good faith efforts to comply with an absurdly and unjustifiably complex income tax system. Others know full well what they are doing when they engage in "pay cash, pay less" schemes, launder money, or simply fail to file. I suppose this reflects our culture, for surely it resembles what one finds on our highways: drivers who try to comply and succeed, drivers who are ignorant, stupid, careless and confused, and drivers who think they are so much more important than or better than everyone else that they flaunt whatever rules get in the way of their own self-centered approach to life.
A fun calculation is to determine how much tax has not been paid on the tax gaps for 2002, 2001, 2000, and earlier years, add interest and penalties, and imagine what happens if Treasury had the ability to collect the total amount due. The shock to the world economy might be staggering. We'll never know, because Treasury lacks the ability to collect even a minute fraction of this amount. Why? Because Congress has not implemented a system that ensures all taxpayers pay their fair shares.
Until Congress does two things, the tax gap will continue to grow, and the ultimate outcome might be far worse than the impact of quadrupled prices for oil and gas, shortages of concrete, or devastating hurricanes. Congress must reform the income tax system so that it is easy to understand, inviting of compliance, and difficult to evade. Congress must also put in place safeguards that prevent noncompliance and punish tax evaders. Ideally, a well-designed system that prevents tax evasion will reduce the number of tax evaders and thus reduce the need for prosecution of tax evaders. Law enforcement could then redirect more resources to the prevention of, and prosecution of, other crimes.
The tax gap fascinates me and frustrates me. * * * I'm both fascinated and frustrated by the willingness of people to avoid their legal responsibilities. Of course, that fascination and frustration is not limited to tax avoidance devotees but also the behavior of those who violate a variety of rules and regulations.A year later, in Closing the Tax Gap Requires Congressional Introspection, I described a GAO report, "TAX COMPLIANCE Multiple Approaches Are Needed to Reduce the Tax Gap." I described the report thusly:* * * * *
[The National Taxpayer Advocate’s] report points out that when taxable transactions are properly reported to the IRS, the rate of tax collection exceeds 90 percent, but when payments are not reported compliance drops to a range of 20 to 68 percent, depending on the type of transaction. Sometimes reporting does not occur because people are noncompliant. Sometimes reporting does not occur because it is not required. * * *
[The National Taxpayer Advocate] recommends expanding the list of transactions that must be reported. This is the sort of suggestion that makes one wonder why it wasn't done decades ago. The answer is easy. As [the National Taxpayer Advocate] points out, tax revenues would climb if every taxable transaction was subject to reporting requirements. That, however, would be an onerous burden. * * *
I add that compliance is enhanced when withholding takes place, because withholding shifts the tax payment and not just information to the Treasury.
The report concludes that the tax gap "has multiple causes and spans different types of taxes and taxpayers." Accordingly, "Multiple approaches are needed to reduce the tax gap. No single approach is likely to fully and cost-effectively address noncompliance since, for example, it has multiple causes and spans different types of taxes and taxpayers."I criticized the report because it presupposed Congress as a whole does not even know what is in the tax law though some individual members are aware of whatever provision they championed. I also questioned why members of Congress caved in to the lobbyists whose clients oppose the expansion of reporting and withholding and who misrepresented attempts to increase withholding by falsely describing the effort as a “new tax.” I then explained:Three major approaches are considered:
1. Simplifying or reforming the tax code.
2. Providing the IRS with more enforcement tools.
3. Devoting additional resources to enforcement. Minor approaches include "periodically measuring noncompliance and its causes, setting tax gap reduction goals, evaluating the results of any initiatives to reduce the tax gap, optimizing the allocation of IRS’s resources, and leveraging technology to enhance IRS’s efficiency."
The report points out that billions of dollars of the tax gap could be avoided if the tax law were simplified or fundamentally reformed. It explains, for example, that the IRS "has estimated that errors in claiming tax credits and deductions for tax year 2001 contributed $32 billion to the tax gap."
Unfortunately, the report then concludes that "these provisions serve purposes Congress has judged to be important and eliminating or consolidating them could be complicated." Even fundamental reform, in which tax preferences are limited and "taxable transactions are transparent to tax administrators," is "difficult to achieve." The report provides an almost irrefutable axiom, that "any tax system could be subject to noncompliance." Finally, it provides another difficult-to-rebut observation: "Withholding and information reporting are particularly powerful tools."
Left to instinct, most people would prefer to pay no taxes, and exist as beneficiaries of others. History teaches that most of those who can grab have done so, and that many who could not exerted themselves to find ways to do so. The tax gap is a reflection of some unintentional errors and lots of intentional evasion. Careful intellectual reasoning, though, teaches us that civilization requires taxation, economic principles tell us that taxation should be efficient, common sense tells us it should be simple, and ethical principles tell us that it should be fair. It takes leadership to persuade the civilized world why it makes no sense, in the long-run, to behave in ways that generate tax gaps. Fraudulent behavior by taxpayers contributes to the tax gap. So, too, does the way in which Congress does business. Ought not the Congress take the first step in leading by example? Until the Congress understands that the way it does business encourages the non-filers, the protesters, the illegal tax shelter promoters, and the rest of the noncompliant population to act in ways that undermine the tax law and fuel the rapid growth in the tax gap, talking about closing the tax gap is not much more than rhetoric. Yes, I talk and write about it, but I've not undertaken the responsibility that members of Congress have sought and accepted. If they don't think they can or want to fix the problem, no one will stop them from returning home.Shortly after I wrote those words, I received a letter from Senator Max Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Senator Charles E. Grassley, ranking member of that committee, in which they asked for "suggestions on ways to improve compliance with our tax laws, including specific recommendations to reduce the tax gap." I described my response in Congress Invites My Ideas for Improving Tax Compliance and Of Course I Respond, and I included in that posting a copy of the letter I sent to the Congress. I do not republish it today because a quick click on the preceding link should suffice. In summary, I pointed out that a six-prong approach is required, namely, making tax education a part of high school curricula, simplifying the tax law, increasing reporting, expanding withholding, funding increased and improved audits, and strengthening the ability of the Department of Justice to prosecute tax crimes. I closed that day’s post by telling readers “I will let you know if I receive a response.” I did not. I did not receive a direct response. Nor have I seen the Congress respond by taking steps to deal with a rapidly ballooning tax gap.
Almost a decade later, in Tax Compliance and Non-Compliance: Identifying the Factors, I reacted to yet another report from the Taxpayer Advocate. The report focused on characteristics of so-called high-compliance and low-compliance taxpayers. I noted:
Some of the findings are not surprising. According to the survey underlying the report, high-compliance taxpayers are more trustful of government, appear to be more intent on minimizing mistakes on their tax returns, viewed government positively, are more likely to rely on tax return preparers, and were motivated by moral concerns and deterrence. Low-compliance taxpayers are less trustful of preparers, are less likely to follow a preparer’s advice when using a preparer, tend to think that other taxpayers have negative views of law and the IRS, are suspicious of the tax system, and are more likely to consider the tax system unfair. All taxpayers viewed the tax law as complicated.And then, again almost a decade later, I drew attention to a major cause of the tax gap. In Tax Noncompliance: Greed on Steroids, I described the news revealed in a report by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration issued a report, High-Income Nonfilers Owing Billions of Dollars Are Not Being Worked by the Internal Revenue Service:Other findings struck me as unexpected. Low-compliance taxpayers are “more likely to participate in local organizations.” They also asserted that they had a moral duty to report income accurately. Non-compliance is higher among sole proprietors of construction companies and real estate rental firms than sole proprietors of other types of businesses.
Though the IRS explains that geographic location is not a factor in selecting returns for audit, the survey results revealed that low-compliance taxpayers were clustered in specific areas. Towns and neighborhoods near San Francisco, Houston, Atlanta, and the District of Columbia, including Beverly Hills, California, Newport Beach, California, New Carrollton, Maryland, and College Park, Georgia, were among 350 communities in which low compliance taxpayers were clustered. In contrast, very few of the 350 communities were in the Midwest or Northeast. What about high-compliance taxpayers? The top of the list consisted of the Aleutian Islands, West Somerville, Massachusetts, Portersville, Indiana, and Mott Haven, a neighborhood in the Bronx.
It did not take long for stories about the Taxpayer Advocate’s report to focus on the nature of the identified communities. For example, an MSN report noted that the low-compliance clusters were in very wealthy neighborhoods. A Yahoo news story put the conclusion in its headline, “IRS Report Shows Many of Biggest Tax Cheaters Live in Wealthy Areas.”
The Taxpayer Advocate report does not disclose whether the low-compliance taxpayers in these clusters were high-income individuals, but it is safe to assume that at least a significant number of them were. Yet what sort of conclusions can be drawn? Is it possible that most low-income taxpayers are not low-compliance taxpayers because they don’t have much income to begin with, and thus no income to hide? Is it possible that because most low and middle income taxpayers realize most of their income from wages subject to tax withholding they have far fewer opportunities to cheat on their taxes? It would not surprise me to discover that someone will argue that the wealthy do cheat more, but would reduce their cheating if their tax rates were lowered. As logical as that proposition might sound, to the extent that greed and money addiction energize every sort of tax reduction attempt, whether lobbying for special breaks and low rates or taking the cheater’s route, it is unlikely that anything other than a zero percent tax rate will satisfy these folks, and even that probably is not enough.
The news is bad.We are at a tax system breaking point. We are here because the worst offenders have persuaded the non-offenders and the minor offenders that any effort to put an end to the shenanigans of the worst offenders will produce the most harm for the non-offenders and the minor offenders. Here is a helpful analogy. Underfunded highway troopers driving vehicles that are too slow to catch the “rocket ship” drivers instead focus on the speeders who are 5, 10, or 15 miles per hour over the limit. When a proposal is made to purchase high-end chase cars for the troopers so that they can catch, ticket, and even arrest the worst speeders, the lobbyists for those “entitled to speed without restriction because of freedom, freedom, freedom” characters persuade the majority of drivers, who are either not speeding or speeding just somewhat, that the proposal will cause the authorities to arrest the compliant drivers and confiscate their vehicles. What’s evil is the lobbying message. What’s sad is the fact that it works way too often. It is time to stop worrying about the specks and to start dealing with the logs.After pointing out that the tax gap – the shortfall between what the law requires taxpayers to pay and what taxpayers are in fact paying – is estimated to be $441 billion for 2011, 2012, and 2013, the report reveals that $39 billion is due from taxpayers who fail to file tax returns. Most of this shortfall is attributable to “high-income nonfilers.” The Inspector General determined that although the IRS is developing a new approach to dealing with nonfilers, it has not yet implemented that approach, and when implemented, it will be “spread across multiple functions with no one area being primarily responsible for oversight.”
Worse, the Inspector General determined that for taxable years 2014 through 2016, 879,415 high-income nonfilers failed to pay roughly $45.7 billion in taxes. Of those 879,415 high-income nonfilers, the IRS did not pursue 369,180 of them, accounting for an estimated $20.8 billion in unpaid taxes. Of the 369,180 were not put into the queue for pursuit of the unpaid taxes and the cases for 42,601 were closed without further action. The other 510,235 of the 879,415 high-income nonfilers “are sitting in one of the Collection function’s inventory streams and will likely not be pursued as resources decline.”
Even worse, because the IRS works on each tax year separately rather than combining cases when a taxpayer fails to file for more than one year, it “is missing out on opportunities to bring repeat high-income nonfilers back into compliance.” Of these high-income nonfilers for 2014 through 2016 that the IRS failed to address or resolved, the top 100 owed an estimated $10 billion in unpaid taxes. The Inspector General has proposed seven changes to deal with these problems, but the IRS agreed in full only to two of them, partially agreed with four, and disagreed with one. The IRS objected to putting the nonfiler program under its own management structure.
Here and there a failure to file arises from an understandable problem, such as a taxpayer falling ill without anyone realizing it in time, or developing dementia or similar mental impairments. Sometimes the failure to file arises from financial setbacks for taxpayers who don’t realize that in those situations it is best to file and indicate the inability to pay. Some instances of failure to file are expressions of principled protest against specific government policies. A significant portion reflect a deep greed rooted in a taxpayer’s perception that they have no obligation to contribute to society, with the failure to file and pay almost always defended as a justified expression of the taxpayer’s anti-tax philosopy.
Is it any wonder that so many people are enraged? Though there are many ingredients fueling social unrest, an important one is the growing sense among Americans that they are fools for complying with tax laws when “high income nonfilers” are “getting away with it.” Would it be a surprise if more taxpayers choose not to file, knowing that the IRS lacks the resources to chase them down? This sort of mob mentality is no less likely to spread among taxpayers as it can spread among crowds encouraged to break other laws.
Though it is easy to suggest that Congress needs to wake up and provide sufficient funding to the IRS, especially because every dollar invested returns roughly seven, but the Congress is incapable of doing this. Enough of It is controlled by the anti-tax, anti-government crowd that it lacks the ability to do what needs to be done. Until the makeup of the Congress changes, the tax gap will persist and even increase, adding to the growing deficit that threatens to cause havoc more catastrophic than what currently afflicts the nation. The greed that is fueling the income and wealth inequality contributing to so many of the nation’s problems is growing as though on steroids, and needs to be neutralized expeditiously.