On more than a few occasions I have explained why demand-side economics makes much more sense, and why supply-side economics makes no sense. In The Expensing Deduction is an Expensive and Broken Idea, I reacted to a proposal “to deduct all expenditures related to the operation of their business in the United States” with this explanation:
However, it nonetheless amounts to nothing more than a windfall tax break for those businesses, chiefly large enterprises that are buying equipment. Giving a tax deduction for an expenditure that already is being made surely is not an incentive to make that expenditure. The solution to job creation is not supply-side, but demand-side. Some members of Congress understand this. Others don’t, continuing to drop raw eggs on the concrete floor from three stories up, in the belief that the eggs won’t break.In Does Repealing the Corporate Income Tax Equal More Jobs?, I explained why repealing the corporate income tax does not create jobs. I explained:
There currently are corporations drowning in cash, and they aren’t hiring. Why? A business does not hire unless it needs employees. Acquisition of cash is not a reason to hire. A business hires if it needs employees. It needs employees if it has more work to do than its current employees can handle. Those situations arise when the gross receipts of the business increase. That happens when customers spend more. Customers do not spend more unless they have both resources and either a need or desire for the goods or services being sold by the business. That happens when money is infused into the hands of consumers. In other words, what works is demand-side economics. Eliminating the corporate income tax does not increase demand.In Tax Perspectives of the Wealthy: Observing the Writing on the Wall, I reacted to a letter written by almost four dozen New York millionaires supporting an increase in New York state income taxes applicable to millionaire income. I wrote:
What motivates these millionaires is the realization that, in the long run, insufficient tax revenue erodes the infrastructure on which the economy rests, an economy that generate the income and wealth held by the millionaire and billionaires. Similarly, as the number of “New Yorkers who are struggling economically” increases, there is a decrease in the amount of purchased goods and services, in turn harming the overall economy. Put simply, though these millionaires did not articulate it in this manner, a healthy state economy, just like the national and global economies, depends on demand-side activity. The death of supply-side, trickle-down economic theory is a slow one, but its final breath draws nearer.In Kansas Demonstrates Again Why Supply-Side Economics Fails, I reviewed my earlier commentaries on the supply-side disaster in Kansas, and noted. “Apparently belief in failed supply-side economics dies hard.”
So it was disappointing to see that, once again, Tom Giovanetti of the Institute for Policy Innovation has continued to support making business expensing permanent. In his latest essay, written in support of Senator Pat Toomey’s “Accelerate Long-Term Investment Growth Now (ALIGN) Act,” he repeats Tax Foundation claims that this massive tax cut “would increase GDP by $172 billion and add an additional $1 trillion to the nation’s capital stock” and “create an additional 172,000 jobs and grow wages by an additional 0.8 percent.”
Giovanetti writes, “But how, exactly, do tax cuts stimulate economic growth? By encouraging businesses to invest in new plant equipment, research & development, employee training and the like, tax cuts can help make the economy more productive.” In a general sense, that’s true. But generalities don’t answer specific questions. Realizing that, Giovanetti continues, “But it has to be the right kinds of tax cuts—that is, tax cuts that encourage businesses to invest.” He adds, “Tax cuts that are simply designed to ‘put more money in people’s pockets’ may help those individuals, but they don’t necessarily stimulate economic growth because they don’t encourage investment and productivity growth.”
The flaw in this reasoning is easy to discern. First, many businesses already pay little or no taxes, so a tax cut doesn’t generate much in the way of cash flow. But let’s set that problem aside. Second, in what will the businesses invest? Employees? To do what? Equipment? To be used for what? Giovanetti explains, “The idea is simple: If you need a new fleet of trucks, a new warehouse, a new manufacturing plant or a piece of equipment in order to become more productive, the tax code shouldn’t hold you back.” If the business has those needs, it’s because it has revenue arising from demand for its goods and services, so it can make the necessary purchases, which should be deductible over time as depreciation. The idea that the purchase cannot be made without a total, immediate tax write-off suggests either that the business lacks the necessary cash to make the purchase, which in turn suggests that the business doesn’t have enough revenue, and demand, to justify the need for the purchase, or that the business owners see the tax-cut argument as another way to boost cash flow that already is more than sufficient.
The flaw is magnified by the claim that putting “more money in people’s pockets may help those individuals, but they don’t necessarily stimulate economic growth because they don’t encourage investment and productivity growth.” Of course they do. The 99 percent of Americans not drowning in cash and other wealth would not keep the money in their pockets because they have needs. They need to pay for food, for health-care, for transportation, for housing, for clothing, for education, and for everything else needed to survive. And if they’re just getting by, that extra cash inflow will be spent on wants, such as vacations. Or perhaps it will be put in the bank, where it can be loaned out to people who, despite having money “put in their pockets” continue to struggle. When these people begin spending on what they need, and perhaps on what they want, demand will increase, and the businesses supplying those needs, and wants, will experience revenue increases, of such magnitude that they will have plenty of cash, without the need for tax breaks, to purchase equipment and hire workers.
Giovanetti responds by arguing, “Productivity growth is what leads to higher personal income, because rising productivity means creating more output for roughly the same amount of input. The benefits flow to employees, shareholders, and throughout the entire economy.” As has been pointed out by numerous economists, almost all of the 2017 tax cuts and most of the recent productivity growth has flowed into the stock market, into dividends, into stock buy-backs, and into the hands of the shareholders and economic elite. Nearly half of U.S. workers earn less than $30,000 annually. Making expensing permanent isn’t going to jack their salaries up by any meaningful amount, particularly when inflation is taken into account.
It's tough watching people go back for seconds and thirds at the buffet table when other people aren’t even getting a decent meal. Claiming that heaping more food onto the buffet table will solve the problem is clever by too much. In Tax Perspectives of the Wealthy: Observing the Writing on the Wall, I also wrote, “The concern is not that the writing is on the wall for outdated trickle-down economic theory. The concern is that some people are unable to read that writing or to understand what it means or why it is there.” It’s time for Tom Giovanetti to let go of ideas that have enriched the rich, impoverished the poor, and pretty much destroyed the middle class.