The current Administration seems to think that cutting payroll taxes is an effective approach to deal with at least some of the economic problems caused by the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the Covid-19 disease. There are news articles all over the internet and in newspapers and magazines reporting that the White House wants to stimulate the economy, or at least bail out some sectors of the economy adversely affected by the outbreak, by cutting payroll taxes.
Of course, anyone who understands economics, taxation, and tax policy knows that this approach is as ineffective as pretty much most of the other tax-cut-based economic solutions have been. I’m not alone in that view. For example, the headline to this
Business Insider article sums it up, “Trump's idea of a payroll tax cut would be nearly useless for the Americans who need the help the most.” The article points out that it doesn’t help those without jobs or who are losing jobs during this economic freefall, and that it would benefit the wealthy more than the poor, with the amount put into the pockets of the former being more than 10 times what would go into the wallets of the latter. As another example, this
Los Angeles Times commentary points out that not only does the payroll tax not help workers, it also would “destroy Social Security.”
Several days ago, Tom Giovanetti of the
Institute for Policy Innovation published a
commentary in which he disclosed that “we’re not enthusiastic about a payroll tax cut.” Neither am I, but I’m more than simply not enthusiastic. I oppose the idea.
The reason Giovanetti is unenthusiastic about using a payroll tax cut to deal with the problems is that he prefers economic stimulus. He prefers supply-side approaches rather than the demand-side approach that I advocate. I’m not alone. For example, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities issued
a report explaining why payroll tax cuts won’t get the job done because it’s too slow, badly targeted, and too narrow, suggesting instead direct cash payments to some households, with details forthcoming. Giovanetti and others oppose that approach because it requires borrowing money, but I suppose he and the others would not be surprised that I also oppose borrowing but would be disappointed that I also advocate repealing the badly-designed and harmful tax cuts enacted in 2017, coupled with a refund to the American people from those who obtained those cuts on the basis of promises they never kept and in many cases had no intention of keeping.
Giovanetti recognizes the mess that has been created. He points out, correctly, that options are limited. As he puts it, “Interest rates are already extremely low, the Federal Reserve has already tried quantitative easing, we’ve already cut corporate taxes and passed expensing of business investment. The toolbox for juicing the economy is just about empty.” He’s correct, but I wish he would examine the underlying cause of the mess.
His solution? Personal retirement accounts, which, he says, “could even be called Trump Retirement Accounts.” Is he kidding? Putting that name on anything is a sure way to fire up even more opposition. But, name aside, we already have personal retirement accounts. They’re called 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans, Keogh plans, IRAs, SEPs, SIMPLEs, and others that I’m leaving out because the list is long enough to make the point.
Why the enthusiasm for replacing Social Security with personal retirement accounts? It puts even more retirement dollars into Wall Street. Is that a good thing? No. Unlike Social Security, Wall Street guarantees nothing. Imagine what would happen if these were with us all along, with no Social Security, and someone was compelled to retire last week. And unlike Social Security, these sorts of accounts divert fees and commissions and other charges into the other people’s pockets.
He claims that these proposed accounts could “be made absolutely safe,” would “allow low- and middle-income workers their first real opportunity to build wealth,” and “would rescue future retirees from Social Security’s eventual meltdown.” These claims are the same ones made when privatization of Social Security was proposed more than a decade ago, and they still can be rebutted as they were back then. For example,
this analysis examines twelve flaws in this idea. The analysis points out it removes current protection against disability and early death, would leave Social Security with outstanding obligations but devoid of additional inflows, would dampen economic growth rather than boost it as Giovanetti and others assert, failed in Chile, the UK, and other places, pose the risk of bad investment returns, put the retirement annuity at the mercy of how the market is doing at retirement especially when the worker has not choice in the timing of retirement, would increase Wall Street’s revenues, would require a new government bureaucracy, would put the cost of transforming the program on young people, would disadvantage women, minorities, and others who work fewer years outside the home, earl less, and live longer after retirement, and lack inflation protection.
It is becoming increasingly disappointing and dangerous that every time an economic crisis pops up, proposals are made that in the short-run and long-run shift wealth to the oligarchy. The sales pitches made for these proposals are disturbing. And every time they are bought by legislators they cause another crisis, which then provides the opportunity for yet another bad proposal to be made. Yes, I do think it is all part of a much bigger plan. But when plans backfire, as this one will, it’s not the planners who pay the price. That’s wrong, sad, and unacceptable.