It indeed is worrisome that misinformation has infected society. Worse, the ability to critically analyze information is headed into extinction. A recent example is the claim that because corporations are closing stores the economy is in shambles.
Let’s first look at retail store closings. Why do stores close? They close for a variety of reasons.
One significant cause is the transfer of shopping from retail store browsing and purchasing to online browsing and purchasing. That doesn’t mean the economy is slowing down or speeding up. It simply means that the marketplace has been moving. As older generations accustomed to in-person shopping depart this life and younger generations who are growing up in an online world turn to online shopping, the trend will continue.
Another significant cause is relocation of retail outlets. When people move from one area to another, retailers will follow. For example, when I saw a commentary claiming that Outback’s decision to close stores was due to “Bidenomics,” I did what too many people don’t do. Perhaps it is curiosity, but perhaps it also involves verification preferences. According to a spokesperson for Outback, as reported in this this report, while Outback is closing 41 stores it is opening 40 to 45 replacements. The spokesperson explained, “a variety of factors resulted in the decision, including sales and traffic-trade areas, which means how close customers live to a business location and how far they might travel to patronize it.” Similar closings and new openings also are happening with other retailers. Those who try to score debate points by taking information out of context or omitting all of the facts are, unfortunately, adept at swaying the opinions of those who don’t make any effort to thing through the information being highlighted.
Another cause, perhaps not as significant, is the closing of a store so that it can be renovated or upgraded to keep pace with societal expectation and demands in the in-person shopping environment. When the renovation is a gut-and-rebuild event, the closing appears to be permanent because of the length of time the project requires. I’ve yet to see a meme claiming that the opening or re-opening of a store is a manifestation of a healthy economy. It’s so much easier to criticize than to praise.
Another cause is the cyclical nature of certain sectors of the economy. For decades restaurants have closed and new ones have opened. Why? Sometimes the restaurant is dependent on a particular ownership. But often, people simply get bored or dissatisfied and, as is the case with fashion, music, art, and other cultural manifestations, eagerly turn to whatever is or appears to be new. That pattern doesn’t mean the economy is good, bad, or indifferent.
Another cause, the significance of which is debatable, is the closing of stores because of shoplifting and crime. Yes, this is happening, but only in certain places and not as a widespread national economic collapse. Is this a problem? Yes, of course. Can it be fixed? Yes. Are those responsible for curtailing shoplifting and crime doing their job? No. Is it their fault? In some instances, yes, but in many instances, they have been handcuffed by a variety of well-intended theoretical but pragmatically unworkable attempts to deal with crime in ways that don’t work.
Let’s put aside the “sky is falling” panic fueled by misinformation and incomplete or out-of-context reports and look at the economy. Is the economy a mess? That question masks two questions, namely, how is the economy now, and how is it expected to be in the future. Much like the same two questions concerning a person’s health, the first question can be answered by looking at existing conditions, whereas the second question involves the dangerous exercise of predicting the future and generates answers that are clouded by risks, probabilities, and generalities. I’m not about to join the seers and prophets who think they know what the economy will do, for the simple reason that I don’t know what the economy will do and have no desire to pile onto the growing mass of hedged and conditional forecasts.
What is the current state of the economy? What measure should be used? One can look at gross domestic product, employment, inflation, and consumer confidence, to mention four that get a lot of attention.
Fourth quarter 2023 GDP, the latest for which there is data, increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent. The forecasts had been for a lower increase. By this measure, the economy is doing well.
When it comes to employment, again the economy performed better than what was predicted. In January, more than 350,000 jobs were added. During 2023, about three million jobs were created. The unemployment rate was 3.7 percent, below 4 percent for 25 months in a row. When was the last time that happened? In the 1960s. An unemployment rate between 3 and 5 percent indicates that the economy is at or near capacity. In other words, it is doing very well. Another employment measure is wages. Average hourly earnings increased from December to January, and increased 4.5 percent over the past year.
Inflation, which was terrible a few years ago, has cooled to 3.4 percent for 2023. It increased 0.3 percent in January, equivalent to an annual rate a bit higher than the 2023 rate, but still within the range of what is acceptable for a strong economy.
Consumer confidence for 2023, as measured by retail sales, increased by almost 5 percent. Disposable income increased more than 4 percent. Those are not signs of a sick economy.
So why do so many people think that the economy is a mess? In a few instances it’s a person’s reaction to their own experience, though too often a person’s economic situation isn’t entirely the fault of everyone but the person, and the person’s own choices surely affect their economic experience. The primary reason so many people are perceiving the economy as in a condition inconsistent with reality is the effectiveness of propaganda. Propaganda works best when it isn’t analyzed and challenged. It works best when it is gobbled up because it resonates with emotional predisposition, thus bypassing the prefrontal cortex. Add to this the woeful state of education in this country and a large segment of the population is a ready market for those who want to hide reality and create an environment of falsity. Where is this propaganda sourced? Much of it arrives from overseas, from countries that include admitted enemies and some countries that pretend to be friendly, because it benefits these nations if the United States is fragmented by creating a population segment that believes in the falsity. There also is a domestic source that puts political gain above national economic health, some of whom are fearful of the nation learning that supply-side, trickle-down economic nonsense shows its falsity when compared to a more sensible management of the economy.
Resisting the siren call of propaganda, misinformation, and misrepresentation is difficult. If it doesn’t happen, the false reality will become true, and the unpleasantness of that sort of environment will generate an understanding that comes too late to do anything about it.