Bartlett D. Cleland, at the
Institute for Policy Innovation, has published
commentary in which he asks, “What's Wrong with the Middle Class?,” a question to which he answers, “Uncertainty, Taxes and Low Growth.” That, in fact, is the title of his piece, and in the piece he adds debt as a fourth cause. His proposed solution consists of investment in buildings and heavy equipment, internationally competitive sound tax policies, and telegraphed regulatory forbearance.
Cleland is quite correct that uncertainty gets in the way of economic success. It’s a problem that extends far beyond the business world. How can anyone make plans when everything is changing, often without notice? To some extent, uncertainty cannot be eradicated. Next week’s weather might force delays in shipping materials. A surprise announcement from a corporation can throw the stock market into disarray. But surely uncertainty can be reduced despite the fact that, ultimately, nothing is guaranteed. One of the significant contributors to uncertainty is the gridlock in Congress that leaves people wondering what the tax and other rules will be for a taxable or planning year already underway. As I noted in
Tax Politics and Economic Uncertainty,
Punting on Taxes and
Tax Punting, Tax Uncertainty, and Tax Complexity, playing politics with tax and economic policy is a dangerous game. The solution isn’t mentioned by Cleland. The solution is cleaning up politics, outlawing gerrymandering, and reforming Congress. Until that happens, nothing will happen.
Cleland’s claim that high taxes keep companies from investing ignores the fact that companies have been generating record profits and have been building up immense amounts of cash. Even holding cash is, technically, an investment. The issue isn’t whether these companies are investing, because they are, but what investments are they, and ought they, be making. Taxes are lower than they were in the 1950s, and yet the economy rolled along nicely in the 1950s. Something else is the problem, and uncertainty is one piece of it. Taxes are not, aside from the substantial business tax breaks that are available to corporations, particularly the large ones.
Low growth is not a cause of economic distress. It simply is another name for economic distress or, perhaps to some, a symptom of economic distress. If the economy is fixed, low growth disappears. I’m not disagreeing with Cleland’s conclusion that there is low growth, just simply pointing out that low growth is not a reason for a sluggish economy.
I agree with Cleland that debt is a problem. It’s a big problem. A significant chunk of the debt, however, arises from the decision to cut taxes and increase military spending at the same time. I’ve written about this problem numerous times, explaining, for example, in
Peacetime Tax Policy While Waging War = Economic Mess, that the economic mess was generated by factors underling the decline in the value of the dollar, in turn caused by the increase in debt, which “happened because at the same time federal revenues were trimmed through tax cuts, chiefly benefitting the wealthy, federal expenditures soared on account of the war in Iraq.” The tax cuts, we were told, would bring jobs. They did not. It’s time for the nation to file for a refund and to get its money back from the people who took it under false pretenses.
Cleland suggests that part of the solution is investment in buildings and heavy equipment. To some extent, but with some qualifications, he is correct. If by investment in buildings he intends to include rehabilitation of the millions of empty buildings littering the landscape, great. If he contemplates more new buildings while letting the vacant ones crumble and become safety hazards and drug dens, no thank you. Why heavy equipment? Is there something not so good about light equipment? What about infrastructure? Technically, highways, train tracks, bridges, and tunnels are not buildings nor heavy equipment. Does Cleland propose encouraging the purchase of equipment manufactured overseas? If so, how does that help the American economy grow? If Cleland intends to encourage or reward only purchases of American-manufactured equipment, then he’s on the right track. But to move down that track properly, the investment needs to be in jobs, with or without equipment. If corporations would view workers as assets rather than disposable supplies, the economy would flourish. Workers form the heart of the consumer class, and without a consumer class that has wages to spend, the economy sputters.
When it comes to international tax issues, Cleland is correct. Taxation of Americans and American companies abroad, and taxation of foreign corporations and aliens with respect to United States transactions needs to be fixed. It needs to be simplified, it needs to match burden with cost, and it needs to be fair.
Finally, Cleland asks for “telegraphed regulatory forbearance.” That’s not the same as certainty. Instead, it’s a fancy way of saying, “get rid of rules, and turn aside when businesses break the rules that still exist.” If the business world operated as it ought to operate, very few rules will be needed. Businesses must cope with piles of labor law regulations because, absent those regulations, businesses mistreated employees. Businesses must comply with mountains of environmental rules because businesses otherwise would destroy the environment. Had the folks at Enron, Adelphia, and the other poster children of corporate misbehavior, not done what they did, had the Wall Street speculators not pawned off bad mortgages, had the banks not mismanaged credit and use deregulation as a gateway to bad investment decisions, much of the regulatory increase of the past 20 years would have been unnecessary. If business wants fewer rules, business needs to behave more appropriately.
My guess is that Cleland speaks primarily on behalf of the small business, the sole proprietor, the up-and-coming entrepreneur. The problem is that these enterprises are at a disadvantage because the Wall Street operators and the gigantic corporations do not distinguish among small business, consumers, and the middle class when they engage in their oligarchic behavior, another significant contributor to the nation’s economic malaise. During the past year, there are signs that Main Street is beginning to understand that its interests are not being protected by Wall Street. Perhaps as alliances shift, the gridlock in Washington will dissolve, and some progress can be made to fix the problems. Subscribing to the Wall Street mantra, however, is not going to help Main Street or the middle class.