Considering the low chances of winning, many people pass on the chance to win a lottery. Other people jump at the chance, convinced they have some sort of edge especially when it involves picking numbers.
What's a reverse lottery. A bunch of people each receive a small amount of money (in escrow to make it work) for a chance to be one of the few losers of a much larger amount of money.
Considering the low chances of losing, some people would readily accept the small amount of money. Others would refrain from participating, unwilling to incur even that small risk of being required to pay back much more than they were given.
How is all of this relevant to a federal fuel tax suspension?
First, a federal fuel tax suspension is a reverse lottery. By not paying the federal fuel tax, purchasers of gasoline and diesel are in effect being given a small amount of money each time they fill their tank. How much? It depends on the amount of fuel a person uses. Someone who uses 30 gallons of gasoline a month would be given, in effect, $5.52 per month.
Second, a federal fuel tax revenue would decrease federal fuel tax revenues by roughly $3.5 billion each month. This means the Highway Trust Fund would stop receiving income. This means the Highway Trust Fund would be required to stop making payments for highway construction and maintenance and for public transit.
Third, when the Highway Trust Fund stops making payments for highway construction and maintenance, the number of unrepaired potholes will increase and other deterioration will go unfixed. Construction will come to a halt. Some workers will lose jobs. Some drivers will hit potholes, incurring significant expenses. Not all workers will lose their jobs. Not all drivers will hit potholes. Those who do lose jobs or hit potholes have "won" the reverse lottery. They received $5.52 per month. They lose their income. They pay for expensive repairs to their vehicles.
But there also is a big difference between a reverse lottery and a federal fuel tax suspension. A reverse lottery, like a typical lottery, is voluntary. Participate if you wish, step away if you're not interested. But a federal fuel tax suspension is a mandatory, involuntary reverse lottery. Every driver, every worker participates. There's no opt out, permitting someone to pay the federal fuel tax in exchange for retention of a job, immunity from hitting a pothole, or reimbursement for the cost of repairing the damage to a vehicle caused by a pothole.
A similar analysis applies to suspension of state fuel taxes. About two months ago I addressed a similar fuel tax suspension proposal in Pennsylvania, in Does a Temporary Tax Suspension Solve the Underlying Problem?, pointing out other adverse consequences of a fuel tax suspension and explaining that the suspension does not solve the underlying problem. I concluded with this advice:
Yes, increased gasoline and diesel prices are frustrating, harmful to most drivers' wallets, and detrimental to the economy. [The proponent of the fuel tax suspension] is trying to solve a problem caused by someone else. Perhaps it would be better if we insisted that those who cause a problem or break something be the ones who fix the problem or make the repairs. If someone else solves the problem, those afflicted by the problem are less likely to identify those who caused the problems and less likely to take steps to ensure that those same people don't cause yet another problem.Hopefully people are not conned into thinking, "Oh, you politicians suspended the fuel tax and lowered what I'm paying and that is wonderful so I will continue supporting all of you" but rather realize, "Oh, this is a short-term benefit and in the long run it's going to cost me more, perhaps much, much more, so let's stop with the band-aids, fix what all of you broke, and stop all of you from breaking anything else."