A few days ago, in
this commentary, Mark Zandi pointed out that the “U.S. government is set to spend $1,000,000,000,000 more than it earns,” and asked, “Who’ll pay for it?” It’s a good question, and it’s one I’ve addressed at least several times in the recent past. In
A Peek Into Congressional Tax and Deficit Confusion, I pointed out the inconsistency between Paul Ryan’s expression of regret for “not paying off the national debt” and his participation in a tax giveaway to the wealthy and large corporations that has caused the nation debt to grow beyond anything anyone would have imagined ten years ago. In fact, Ryan claimed that the “tax overhaul” enacted “under his leadership” would be be viewed by history as very good. In
Another Tax Cut Failure, and
So a Tax Cut Incentive Didn’t Work As Promised, But I Am Not Surprised, I explained how one aspect of the promised economic benefits of the tax breaks enacted for corporations, namely, a reduction in tax on repatriated earnings, wasn’t producing anything near the promised benefits. In a series of commentaries, including
How To Use Tax Breaks to Properly Stimulate an Economy,
How To Use the Tax Law to Create Jobs and Raise Wages,
Yet Another Reason For “First the Jobs, Then the Tax Break”,
When Will “First the Jobs, Then the Tax Break” Supersede the Empty Promises?,
No Tax Break Until Taxpayer Promises Are Fulfilled, and
When Job Creation Promises Justifying Tax Breaks Are Broken, I have explained how the jobs promised by the advocates of the deficit-enlarging tax giveaway have not materialized, or have shown up as low-paying positions prohibiting workers from meeting their financial needs.
Mark Zandi points out several aspects of the deficit catastrophe hanging over our heads. He notes that the fiscal restraint and responsibility once practiced by members of both parties has disappeared. Annual budget deficits exceeding one TRILLION dollars are upon us and promise to continue if nothing is done. Aside from recession years, the deficit has not reached as high a percentage of the economy as it now does.
Zandi points out what I have been writing and saying for year, that the supply-side trickle-down approach to federal budgeting, does not work. He writes, “Lawmakers who argued that the cuts would pay for themselves by jump-starting sustainably stronger growth and thus much more tax revenue were completely off base. Revenues are plunging.” He also points out, as I have noted, that the tax breaks for corporations have not triggered any measurable increase in investment, making that claim look “more and more like a pipe dream.” None of this surprises those of us who understand how taxes and the economy work. Piled on top of this are large increases in defense spending and in non-defense expenditures. Seriously, if a Congress decides it needs to increase spending, especially for defense, then it ought not be lowering taxes. Imagine if that approach had been taken in the 1940s.
So what’s so bad about huge federal budget deficits? Zandi shares what should be apparent to those who look closely at how economies work. The federal government will need to borrow much more money. That will add more spending to the budget, because the interest expense will increase. It also will cause interest rates to increase, because of the law of supply and demand. With the federal government grabbing more of whatever money is available to borrow, everyone else who needs to borrow, which is everyone other than the oligarchs swimming in tax break money, will find loans more difficult to obtain and interest rates even higher. This shrinks the economy. It begins to spiral down, not up as promised. Alternatively, the federal government can print money, which would pile hyperinflation on top of the economic mess.
What Zandi doesn’t mention is that finding money to borrow, the federal government or someone in the 99 percent, requires looking to those who have money to lend. It is no surprise that the oligarchy drowning in tax break money will be ready to lend, for interest rates that will surely not be declining. Eventually there will be a nation 95 percent or more of whom will be in debt to a handful of trillionaires.
So what’s to be done? Zandi tells us, “To rein in the nation’s deficits and debt will require both higher taxes and spending restraint.” Who gets taxed? According to Zandi, “The increased tax burden can only fall on wealthy and high-income taxpayers, simply because that’s where the money is.” Of course, the wealthy, one of whom has already suggested he will run for president in 2020 because he can’t afford to have his taxes increase, will object mightily, will use their wealth to dictate to the Congress that taxes on them not be increased, or to dictate to at least enough of the Congress to obstruct any tax increases on the wealthy. They will insist that the deficit be reduced by the “spending restraint” portion. Zandi thinks that it “must fall on the healthcare system, because its outsized growth in caring for the elderly and poor is busting the government’s budget.” The oligarchs have their eye on more than Medicare and Medicaid. They also want to eliminate, in steps, Social Security. The net effect would be a population reduction similar to what a pandemic would bring. Already, life expectancy is declining in the United States, even though it spends more on healthcare per capita than other nations. The healthcare spending problem can only be resolved by fixing the underlying causes, namely, overpriced pharmaceuticals, fraud, inefficiencies, and oligopolies taking over health care practices. That, too, will be difficult to do, because the oligarchs have a vested interest in the profits that can be extracted from providing health care. When an oligarch suggests that air and water should be purchased, it is easy to see glimmers of the plan.
To those who argue that it would be against the interests of the oligarchs to let the middle class and poor diminish in number or disappear, I suggest taking a look at Will Bunch’s
commentary on “how the world’s billionaires and their powerful friends are talking about an automated near-future in which millions of jobs from truck driver to bookkeeper to newspaper journalist are replaced by machines,” perhaps eliminating as many as 40 percent of jobs by 2034. Bunch sees it as “a development all but guaranteed to cause massive societal upheaval but the grand poobahs of technology are powerless to stop it...because, you know, shareholders.” He’s quite right. He adds, quoting the president of Infosys, “CEOs who once had been thinking of gently trimming their workforce because of automation are now thinking bigger, that, ‘Now they’re saying, ‘Why can’t we do it with 1 percent of the people we have?’’”
What needs to be done, to fix the deficit as well as to counterbalance the impact of the so-called “robot revolution,” or “robot apocalypse” in some quarters, is what I have been advocating, and what Will Bunch suggests in his commentary. He writes, “I do think the idea of higher income or wealth taxes on multi-millionaires and billionaires . . . should be seen as a potential form of garlic to ward off any the invasion of the robots.” He explains, “Higher taxes on the rich — with a top marginal income tax rate ranging from 70 to 91 percent — played a role in the economic boom of the 1950s and ’60s. The high tax rate inspired CEOs to invest in their workers, or in capital that created new jobs, rather than in themselves and their suppressed yearnings for multiple mansions and yachts. The government also had more tax revenue to spend on projects like infrastructure, which created even more decent middle-class jobs.” Certainly this nation can “bring back the 50s and 60s” without bringing back the social baggage that predominated in that era, by bringing back the sensible economic policies of that time.
Zandi expresses pessimism. He writes, “Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Washington is capable of doing much of anything anytime soon, let alone tackling the daunting challenge of raising taxes and reining in spending.” Until oligarch money is removed from the equation, “Washington” isn’t going to do much of anything for the 99 percent. It won’t be permitted to do anything that removes the oligarchs from power. Will Bunch addresses those oligarchs with advice I doubt most of them will heed: “Maybe stop obsessing over artificial intelligence and use some emotional intelligence for a change. The short-term sugar rush of quarterly profit margins won’t be worth a warm bucket of spit in an economy with Great Depression levels of unemployment, where the only guaranteed job is building the barricades of a social revolution. That means thinking about stakeholders, including workers, and not just shareholders.” Indeed. As I have pointed out many times, capitalists need consumers, and consumers need money to be consumers, which means they need jobs. The best approach to growing a business is to invest in workers.
What both Zandi and Bunch write is consistent with what I wrote in
A Peek Into Congressional Tax and Deficit Confusion: “If it is difficult for a member of Congress to understand basic arithmetic and the practical reality of economics, imagine the challenge facing most Americans. This is what encourages advocates of failed tax policy to continue preaching this nonsense [of tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations trickling down to the masses]. They have the means to do so because they are financed by the handful of wealthy individuals and large corporations that benefit from a situation that is detrimental to almost all Americans. Though some people look at their present situation and consider it comfortable, very few examine the long-term consequences of this harmful tax-cut gimmick and the impact of those consequences on their lives ten, twenty, or thirty years from now.”
I share the pessimism. As I also wrote in
A Peek Into Congressional Tax and Deficit Confusion: “Perhaps it is the inability to understand tax and economic policy that encourages too many voters to line up with those who offer false promises that make for great tweets and sound bites but that in the long run, and in many instances in the short run, are disadvantageous to the vast majority of Americans. By the time enough people figure this out, it will probably be too late. So for those who don’t yet get it, cutting taxes for the wealthy and large corporations not only fails to reduce or pay off national debt, it also fails to improve the economic position of everyone else.”
When a mistake has been made, fix it. Fixing a mistake often requires undoing, or reversing, what was done. A person who drives past the store they wanted to visit needs to turn around. A person who types the wrong letter in spelling a word needs to hit the backspace key. A Congress that foolishly cut taxes needs to uncut those taxes, and not just in the future. The tax breaks that were dished out but that were not used for what was promised are not unlike a merchant giving too much change to a customer. Undo the tax cuts. It’s that simple. Otherwise, an exploding deficit will meet some robots, and it won’t end well for pretty much everyone.